After snapping a four-game winless streak a week ago, Atlanta United have a chance to extend their home unbeaten run to 13 games in Major League Soccer when they host the New England Revolution on Sunday at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
In 90 minutes on Saturday, the Five Stripes scored more goals domestically than they had in all of their MLS affairs last month, beating the Chicago Fire 4-1, while the 2021 Supporters' Shield winners have earned points in back-to-back games after drawing the Columbus Crew 2-2.
Match preview
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A campaign that has been littered with bad luck for Gonzalo Pineda and his side, primarily on the injury front, was all but forgotten last Saturday.
While the win came at a heavy price, with another regular being forced to the sidelines, a loanee from Mexico swooped in to rescue them against Chicago.
What we saw from this squad at Mercedes-Benz Stadium against the Fire is something that Pineda has been anxiously waiting to see throughout the year as their attacking threats were finally able to get themselves in good positions to score goals.
You will often see them carry the play with the bulk of the possession, but that finished product has often been missing, scoring a goal or fewer in six of their 10 games in 2022.
When we see the movement and diagonal runs from their players upfront like we saw last weekend, they can be a dangerous side, especially knowing how difficult it can be to dispossess them.
This season, one recurring issue with this group has been an inability to prevent goals early on, conceding eight in the first half and one in each of their last three contests within the opening half-hour of play.
At the U.S. Open Cup on Wednesday, though, it was a different story, as they were up 2-0 against Nashville SC after a half hour only to suffer a late collapse, conceding three second-half goals, two in injury-time, falling 3-2.
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New England made plenty of wrong decisions in their opening eight fixtures of the campaign, but since the end of April, they have done many things right.
Their final 20 minutes at home versus Columbus was eerily similar to what we saw from the Revs throughout a record-setting 2021 regular season as they came to life with two goals in 12 minutes, though they squandered two points by conceding an equaliser a minute before injury-time to Erik Hurtado.
Bruce Arena has often been critical of the performances from his centre-backs this year, who have struggled to get inside position on opposing attacking players.
They have yet to win a match away from home this season, with only a single point after four encounters, despite tallying twice in three different games.
For the Revs, conceding late goals has been a problem, allowing 11 in the second half, eight beyond the 75th minute, and dropping seven points as a result.
Their aggressive approach and central movements can usually provide them with plenty of scoring opportunities in virtually every game, although they do tend to leave some space in behind their defence.
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Team News
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Centre-back Miles Robinson is the latest Atlanta player to join the growing list of injuries for this team, as he is likely done for the season and possibly the World Cup as well after suffering a ruptured Achilles and being replaced by Alex DeJohn early on versus the Fire.
The other players still unavailable include Dylan Castanheira (Achilles), Machop Chol (leg), Osvaldo Alonso (ACL), Josef Martinez (knee), Brad Guzan (Achilles) and George Campbell (adductor).
Ronaldo Cisneros, who is currently on loan from Guadalajara, lifted the Five Stripes with a hat trick last weekend as he was named the Continental Player of the Week, while Brooks Lennon notched an insurance marker in injury time, his second of the campaign.
Revs forward Adam Buksa is on the longest scoring streak of his MLS career, with a goal in four consecutive domestic affairs while also notching a brace in their U.S. Open Cup triumph over FC Cincinnati (5-1).
Gustavo Bou and Jon Bell sat out of their match against the Crew with upper leg injuries, Damian Rivera made his second MLS start, scoring the winner versus Inter Miami, while Emmanuel Boateng and Sebastian Lletget each picked up their second assists of the season in their previous MLS encounter, with DeJuan Jones netting his first domestic tally of 2022.
Carles Gil, the 2021 MLS MVP, is starting to come alive, having distributed assists in four successive matches in all competitions, and he was the star of the show against Cincinnati in midweek scoring a hat-trick, while collecting an assist as well, with Brandon Bye adding a pair of helpers in that lopsided victory.
Gil sits second in the league when it comes to assists (five) behind Diego Fagundez, while he also has 33 key passes in MLS, second only to Luciano Acosta.
Atlanta United possible starting lineup:
Shuttleworth; Lennon, Franco, DeJohn, Gutman; Araujo, Sosa, Rossetto; Almada, Cisneros, Moreno
New England Revolution possible starting lineup:
Turner; Bye, Gonzalez, Farrell, Jones; Lletget, Polster, McNamara; Gil; Buksa, Rivera
We say: Atlanta United 1-3 New England Revolution
Miles Robinson is the backbone of the Atlanta defence, and his absence should allow an already potent attacking squad in New England to have plenty of openings to pick apart the Five Stripes in the final third.
The Revolution still have a pretty leaky defensive unit, but they should be able to make up for it with all of the chances that they are likely to have in this one, not to mention the fact that they are coming off an offensive outburst in midweek which should help restore some confidence to their attack.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atlanta United win with a probability of 59.29%. A draw had a probability of 20.6% and a win for New England Revolution had a probability of 20.07%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atlanta United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.59%) and 1-0 (8.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.37%), while for a New England Revolution win it was 1-2 (5.36%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood.
