The most expensive roster in Major League Soccer will try to make all of that money pay off beginning on Sunday as Atlanta United host Sporting Kansas City at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Despite a tumultuous early 2021 campaign, The Five Stripes managed to make it back into the postseason, losing 2-0 to the eventual champions New York City FC in the opening round, while KC were upset 2-1 by Real Salt Lake in the Western Conference Semi-Finals.
Match preview
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Atlanta enter 2022 looking to retain the consistency that we saw from them down the stretch of last season, as they went unbeaten in their final 10 regular season affairs.
For a side with as much quality as they possess, it is safe to say that they underperformed in their opening 17 matches a year ago, winning only twice.
Gonzalo Pineda seems to have restored the peace within the squad since being named manager, after there was for a long time what looked like unrest between the players and former boss Gabriel Heinze.
This franchise has always set the bar high for themselves, and this season will be no exception as they have a quick, attacking squad but are also well organised defensively.
Expect to see Pineda give his players the green light to go after teams at pace when they have the ball, especially in transition, a philosophy that their Mexican coach knows well from his days as an assistant with the Seattle Sounders.
That playing identity made this franchise successful in the past, and it was something that seemed to escape them last year, as they had a lot of touches, executing their share of passes, and leading the league in possession (57.45% per game).
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It was another exceptional regular season in Kansas City in 2021, something that we have become used to seeing from Peter Vermes and his side, who finished in a top-three position in the Western Conference for the third time in the last four years.
While KC were stunned by RSL in the playoffs, this group have been one of the more consistent sides in Major League Soccer, possessing what may be the two most potent wingers in all of MLS.
Their Achilles heel a year ago was an inability to effectively defend the counter, with a midfield that struggled when it comes to mobility once that first line of pressure was broken.
KC are a competent team who were incredibly potent last year, scoring the second-most goals in the regular season (58) despite not having a natural centre-forward.
Do not expect these players to be much of a threat on set-pieces, as their centre-backs rarely come forward to join the attack, and they do not have many quality dribblers to count on either.
What they do have, though, is perhaps the best passing unit, leading the league in passes last year, as well as successful passes and touches.
When this team had the advantage late in a contest last season, they were nearly unbeatable, but KC also had a lot of resilience, picking up 19 points from losing positions in 2021, the second-most in MLS.
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Team News
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Last year, Josef Martinez led Atlanta in goals for the fourth time over the past five seasons, netting 12 times, three more than Marcelino Moreno, while goalkeeper Brad Guzan had a goals-against-average of 1.00 in 29 matches played.
Ezequiel Barco is on loan in Argentina with River Plate, George Bello signed with Bundesliga side Arminia Bielefeld and Anton Walkes was selected in the expansion draft by Charlotte FC.
Thiago Almada came over from Velez Sarsfield for an MLS-record $16 million. Osvaldo Alonso will be familiar with Pineda, having played with him in Seattle, and Andrew Gutman finally has a home after spending the past two campaigns on loan at FC Cincinnati and the New York Red Bulls respectively.
Jaylin Lindsey returned home to North Carolina, as the former KC defender was traded to Charlotte and llie Sanchez signed as a free agent with Los Angeles FC.
Nikola Vujnovic will be asked to fill the shoes of Alan Pulido, with the Mexican expected to miss most of the year after undergoing knee surgery, Robert Voloder could see some time with the under-22 team and the senior side along with Logan Ndenbe, while fellow newcomer Ben Sweat could be a valuable depth player for Vermes at the back.
Johnny Russell and Daniel Salloi were arguably the best wide players in the league last season, combining for 31 goals (Salloi 16, Russell 15), while Andreu Fontas broke the MLS single-season record last year for passes (2818), successful passes (2515), along with touches (3178).
Atlanta United possible starting lineup:
Guzan; Gutman, Franco, Robinson, Lennon; Sosa, Rossetto; Moreno, Almada, Araujo; Martinez
Sporting Kansas City possible starting lineup:
Melia; Ndenbe, Fontas, Isimat-Mirin, Zusi; Mauri; Walter, Kinda; Salloi, Vujnovic, Russell
We say: Atlanta United 2-3 Sporting Kansas City
Both of these teams are very aggressive, and they possess some deadly strikers who rarely miss their scoring opportunities, meaning that the defences could be in for a long afternoon this weekend.
The Wizards lead the league in opening-game wins with 15 all-time while also possessing the most road victories on opening day with 10, and their experience and resiliency should give them enough to win this one.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atlanta United win with a probability of 52.7%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Sporting Kansas City had a probability of 22.87%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atlanta United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.64%) and 2-0 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.61%), while for a Sporting Kansas City win it was 0-1 (7%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atlanta United would win this match.
