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Sporting Lisbon
Taca da Liga | Final
Jan 11, 2025 at 7.45pm UK
Estadio Dr. Magalhaes Pessoa
Benfica

Sporting Lisbon
vs.
Winner SF2

Preview: Sporting Lisbon vs. Benfica - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Taca da Liga clash between Sporting Lisbon and Benfica, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

The 2024-25 Taca da Liga crown will be on the line in the heated Lisbon derby as Sporting Lisbon and Benfica go head to head in the final at the Estadio Dr. Magalhaes Pessoa on Saturday.

The two Lisbon heavyweights met at the stage of the competition two years ago, with the Leoes claiming a 2-1 victory courtesy of second-half goals from Goncalo Incao and Pablo Sarabia to secure their first cup triumph.


Match preview

Viktor Gyokeres celebrates scoring a hat-trick for Sporting Lisbon on November 5, 2024© Imago

Having suffered a gut-wrenching 4-3 defeat at the hands of rivals Porto in the Portuguese Super Cup back in August, Sporting Lisbon will aim to avoid another final heartbreak and clinch their first piece of silverware for the season.

Rui Borges's men have shown their mettle en route to the final as they picked up a 3-1 victory over Nacional in the quarter-finals on October 29, before digging deep to secure a 1-0 win over Porto in the semi-finals on Tuesday.

Swedish striker Viktor Gyokeres continued his red-hot form in front of goal at the Estadio Jose Alvalade as he netted the only goal of the game in the four minutes before the hour mark to send Sporting Lisbon into the final.

With that result, the Leoes have now gone six back-to-back games without defeat across all competitions, picking up four wins and two draws while scoring 11 goals and keeping three clean sheets, having lost each of the four matches preceding this run.

Clinching the Taca da Liga crown could be instrumental in propelling Sporting Lisbon to the Primeira Liga title as they currently sit top of the league standings with 41 points from 17 games, one point above second-placed Porto, albeit with one game in hand.

Angel Di Maria in action for Benfica on December 11, 2024© Imago

Benfica, on the other hand, booked their spot in the final of Taca da Liga in style as they cruised to a 3-0 victory over 10-man Braga when the two sides squared off in the semi-finals at the Estadio da Luz on Wednesday.

Having edged out Santa Clara by the same scoreline in the quarter-finals back in October, Angel Di Maria turned in a solid individual display as he netted either side of Alvaro Carreras's 28th-minute strike to fire the home side through to the final.

Benfica had lost their previous two outings, suffering a 1-0 loss against Sporting Lisbon on December 29 — a result which saw their nine-game unbeaten run across all competitions come to an end — before losing 2-1 to Braga in the first of their league-and-cup double-header on January 4.

Despite their recent drop-off in form in the Primeira Liga, Bruno Lage's remain firmly in the title race as they sit third in the league standings with 38 points from 17 games, three points adrift of Sporting at the top of the pile.

Benfica will now head into the weekend looking to continue from where they left off against Braga and secure a record-extending eighth Taca da Liga title and their first since the 2015-2016 campaign when they hammered Maritimo 6-2 in the final.

However, As Aguias must see off the challenge of an opposing side whom they suffered a 2-0 loss against in the 2023 cup final and are unbeaten in their most recent four derby clashes, claiming three wins and one draw since February 2024.

Sporting Lisbon Taca da Liga form:


Sporting Lisbon form (all competitions):


Benfica Taca da Liga form:


Benfica form (all competitions):


Team News

Viktor Gyokeres celebrates after scoring for Sporting Lisbon on November 5, 2024© Imago

Sporting Lisbon will have to cope without several players down the spine of the team as Inacio (muscle), Nuno Santos (ligament) and Daniel Braganca (muscle) continue their spells on the sidelines.

Pedro Goncalves has missed each of the last 11 matches after coming off with a muscle injury against Braga on November 12 and the Portuguese international will play no part in this weekend's clash.

With his winner against Porto last time out, Gyokeres has taken his goal involvement tally to 49 for club and country this season and we expect the 26-year-old to lead the hosts' attack once again.

As for Benfica, Portuguese forward Tiago Gouveia continues his lengthy spell on the sidelines after sustaining a severe shoulder injury against Estrela Amadora back in August.

Other than that, As Aguias head into the final with a clean bill of health and no suspension concerns, giving Lage the luxury of a relatively full strength squad at his disposal.

With his brace against Braga on Wednesday, Di Maria boasts 19 goal contributions across all competitions this season and the ex-Argentine international should team up with Kerem Akturkoglu and Vangelis Pavlidis in attack once again.


Sporting Lisbon possible starting lineup:
Israel; Quaresma, Diomande, St Juste, Reis; Catamo, Morita, Hjulmand, Quenda; Trincao, Gyokeres

Benfica possible starting lineup:
Trubin; Bah, Araujo, Otamendi, Carreras; Barreiro, Aursnes, Kokcu; Di Maria, Akturkoglu, Pavlidis


SM words green background

We say: Sporting Lisbon 2-1 Benfica

With the Taca da Liga title on the line, we expect Sporting Lisbon and Benfica to go all out in search of the win, serving up another classic in the heated Lisbon derby.

Having bottled the Portuguese Super Cup back in August, we are backing the Leoes to come out guns blazing and extend their recent dominance against Benfica to clinch their first piece of silverware this season.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 46.38%. A win for Winner Semi-final 2 has a probability of 29.78% and a draw has a probability of 23.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win is 2-1 with a probability of 9.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (8.41%) and 2-0 (7.11%). The likeliest Winner Semi-final 2 win is 1-2 (7.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.02%).




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Written by
Joshua Ojele

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