The penultimate round of the 2023 Six Nations gets underway in Rome on Saturday as Italy and Wales face off for what could prove to be a Wooden Spoon decider.
Both sides have lost all three of their matches so far, with Wales propping up the table having failed to pick up a single point, while Italy sit fifth courtesy of one losing bonus point.
Match preview
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The hosts will not have to look too far for inspiration and belief that they can pull off a rare Six Nations victory in this match, and ensure that they avoid another Wooden Spoon in the process.
Memories of last year's famous win in Cardiff will still be fresh in the minds of many of the players, and with the home advantage behind them this time around, some may even regard Italy as favourites for Saturday's showdown.
Admittedly, home advantage has not counted for much for Italy in the past - it is 10 years since their last Six Nations win on home soil, and they have lost each of their last 24 such outings stretching back to that triumph over Ireland in 2013.
However, they have already caused the world's best two teams, France and Ireland, issues at the Stadio Olimpico this year, running Les Bleus particularly close in the opening game of the tournament.
Indeed, Italy have now scored 20 or more points in each of their last three Six Nations home games - as many as they had in their previous nine - and against a Welsh side that has scored just 27 points all tournament so far, that could prove decisive.
Those Welsh attacking statistics are bordering on embarrassing for Warren Gatland's side, with their points-for tally standing at less than half of Saturday's opponents, who are the next-lowest scorers in this year's tournament.
Coming up against an Italian side that has shipped more points than any other so far should provide some cause for optimism, but creating scoring opportunities has not been the problem - instead, it is converting those chances into points, with a paltry 0.86 points per entry into the 22 across their three games.
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Such attacking impotence has quickly eliminated any hope and optimism that may have greeted the return of the most successful coach in Six Nations history, and now Gatland finds himself in a very real battle to avoid the Wooden Spoon rather than add to his three titles and Grand Slams.
The New Zealander has won all 12 of his previous Six Nations meetings with Italy as a head coach, including 10 with Wales, and those victories have come by an average margin of 25 points.
However, he will have arguably never faced the Azzurri in such an evenly-balanced contest as this match and, given that Wales have averaged just nine points per game in this year's Championship, it would take a major improvement for his side to win comfortably again this time around.
Off-field issues have of course added to and even overshadowed the problems on the pitch, with players publicly admitting that the row over pay and subsequent strike threat had affected them ahead of the England defeat, while the whole tournament began with allegations over racism, sexism and misogyny within the upper echelons of the WRU.
Saturday's game needs their full attention, though, with Wales still searching for their first point and now on a six-match losing streak in the Six Nations - their worst run for 20 years.
Italy were responsible for one of those defeats last year, ending a 14-game losing streak in this fixture in the process, and a second successive triumph for the Azzurri would surely leave Wales destined for a first Wooden Spoon since 2003 with a trip to France awaiting in their final game.
Despite both teams having lost three out of three so far, Italy have garnered far more plaudits for their performances than Wales and they have never had a better chance to avoid the Wooden Spoon since last doing so in 2015.
Italy Six Nations form:
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Wales Six Nations form:
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Team News
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Italy have been dealt a major blow with star full-back Ange Capuozzo ruled out for the remainder of the tournament due to the shoulder injury he sustained in the defeat to Ireland last time out.
The youngster is replaced by Tommaso Allan in starting XV for this match, the only change made by Kieran Crowley to the side that started against Ireland.
Allan, who started the first two games at fly-half, comes straight in at 15, with Paolo Garbisi continuing at 10.
Edoardo Padovani, who scored the famous winning try against Wales last year, joins Allan and Pierre Bruno in the back three, while the only change amongst the replacements sees Manuel Ziliani come in.
Gatland, meanwhile, has rung the changes once again for Wales, with big names such as Alun Wyn Jones, Dan Biggar, George North and Louis Rees-Zammit all left out of the starting XV, although the latter two are included on the bench.
In total, there are six changes to the team that started in the loss to England, including Rhys Webb replacing Tomos Williams at scrum-half and Liam Williams returning at full-back.
Rio Dyer comes in for Rees-Zammit on the wing in the only other change in the backline, meaning that centre Mason Grady and fly-half Owen Williams both retain their places.
Wyn Jones returns at prop in one of three changes in the pack, with Dafydd Jenkins brought in for just his second Wales start at lock and Jac Morgan coming in for Christ Tshiunza as blindside flanker.
Italy starting lineup: 15. Tommy Allan, 14. Edoardo Padovani, 13. Juan Ignacio Brex, 12. Tommaso Menoncello, 11. Pierre Bruno, 10. Paolo Garbisi, 9. Stephen Varney; 8. Lorenzo Cannone, 7. Michele Lamaro (c), 6. Sebastian Negri, 5. Federico Ruzza, 4. Niccolo Cannone, 3. Simone Ferrari, 2. Giacomo Nicotera, 1. Danilo Fischetti
Replacements: 16. Luca Bigi, 17. Federico Zani, 18. Marco Riccioni, 19. Edoardo Iachizzi, 20. Giovanni Pettinelli, 21. Manuel Zuliani, 22. Alessandro Fusco, 23. Luca Morisi
Wales starting lineup: 15. Liam Williams, 14. Josh Adams, 13. Mason Grady, 12. Joe Hawkins, 11. Rio Dyer, 10. Owen Williams, 9. Rhys Webb; 8. Taulupe Faletau, 7. Justin Tipuric, 6. Jac Morgan, 5. Dafydd Jenkins, 4. Adam Beard, 3. Tomas Francis, 2. Ken Owens (c), 1. Wyn Jones
Replacements: 16. Scott Baldwin, 17. Gareth Thomas, 18. Dillon Lewis, 19. Rhys Davies, 20. Tommy Reffell, 21. Tomos Williams, 22. George North, 23. Louis Rees-Zammit
Head To Head
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Italy's record 36-match losing streak in the Six Nations was memorably ended the last time these two sides met as the Azzurri edged a 22-21 victory at the Principality Stadium last year.
That ended a 14-game losing run against Wales too, and another win this weekend would be their first at home against Wales since 2007, when they triumphed 23-20 - one of only two home wins they have ever recorded in this fixture.
Indeed, last year's win was only Italy's third-ever victory over Wales home or away, with 27 defeats in their 31 previous meetings, while their last match at the Stadio Olimpico saw Wales power to a 48-7 win en route to the title.
We say: Italy 21-17 Wales
The opportunity to predict Italian wins in the Six Nations does not come around often, but this looks to be a real chance for the Azzurri to get a victory on the board.
History will always point to an opposition win when Italy play in the Six Nations, and the loss of Capuozzo is undoubtedly a big one, but they have impressed in all of their matches so far despite losing them, whereas Wales have not impressed at all.
The remarkably low scoring rate of Gatland's side surely cannot go on much longer, so we are backing them to at least run in a couple of tries, but we are nonetheless expecting Italy to come out on top in this one.
Barney Corkhill
