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Rugby League World Cup | Final
Nov 19, 2022 at 4pm UK
 
Australia
30-10
Samoa
Mitchell (14', 80'), Tedesco (18', 69'), Martin (30'), Murray (53')
FT
To'o (61'), Crichton (71')

Preview: Rugby League World Cup final: Australia vs. Samoa - prediction, team news, head to head

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Rugby League World Cup final between Australia and Samoa, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Old Trafford plays host to the Rugby League World Cup final on Saturday as Australia and Samoa do battle for the honour of being crowned the best team on the planet.

After two semi-finals dripping in drama, more history is sure to be made in Manchester this weekend as the sport's dominant force in Australia takes on a first-time finalist in Samoa.


Match preview

Australia's Cameron Murray scores a try on November 11, 2022© Reuters

Australia may have arrived in England sitting a relatively lowly fourth in the international world rankings, but no-one will be surprised to have seen them make it all the way to the showpiece event.

The Kangaroos' record at the Rugby League World Cup is arguably the most dominant of any team in any sport, having reached every single final since the inaugural edition in 1954, and going on to lift the trophy 11 times from those 14 tournaments.

That run includes being crowned world champions in eight of the last nine tournaments, including each of the last two, with their most recent defeat on the World Cup stage coming against New Zealand in the 2008 final on home soil; since then, they have won 17 straight World Cup games.

Australia have already gained revenge for that defeat - most notably hammering New Zealand 34-2 in the final four years later, which incidentally also took place at Old Trafford - and they again got one over on their Trans-Tasman rivals in the semi-finals this year.

Mal Meninga's side by no means had things all their own way, though, and New Zealand were arguably the better side during an all-time classic which Australia ultimately edged 16-14 at Elland Road.

The sheer quality on display from both teams led to some pundits proclaiming it the greatest rugby league game of all time as the Kiwis came within a whisker of finally ending Australia's iron grip on the World Cup.

In terms of drama, though, it was rivalled less than 24 hours later when Samoa shocked England by the finest of margins at the Emirates Stadium, eventually booking their place in a first-ever final courtesy of a golden-point drop-goal in extra time.

Samoa's Ligi Sao celebrates scoring their second try with teammates on November 12, 2022© Reuters

A topsy-turvy affair had seen England salvage a draw from normal time despite their worst showing of the tournament, only for more unforced errors to hand Samoa two chances to knock over the winning point - the second of which they took courtesy of Stephen Crichton's kick.

The result marked an incredible turnaround for both teams given that England hammered Samoa 60-6 in the opening game of the tournament, and Samoa will now look to take that vast improvement into the final as massive underdogs once again.

In truth, the scoreline in the World Cup opener was more of a shock than the one in the semi-final, with Samoa having been tipped as possible dark horses for the trophy before the tournament began, but it would still take one of the all-time great rugby league upsets for them to dethrone Australia on Saturday.

Matt Parish's side are battling not just against a formidable Australian side but also against the weight of history as they look to become only the the fourth nation - after Great Britain/England, Australia and New Zealand - to have their name etched on the World Cup trophy.

The victory over England last weekend will have raised belief that they might be able to pull off that stroke of history and finally establish themselves at the very top table of the sport, having vastly improved throughout the tournament since that chastening opening-day defeat.

Big victories over Greece and France followed their loss to England to secure their place in the quarter-finals, where they edged past fellow Pacific Islanders Tonga 20-18.

Australia, meanwhile, had swept all before them before their more difficult test against New Zealand, averaging 60 points per game on their way to wins over Fiji, Scotland and Italy in the group stages, and Lebanon in the quarters.

Australia World Cup form:

  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W

Samoa World Cup form:

  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W


Team News

Australia's Josh Addo-Carr reacts on November 11, 2022© Reuters

Australia remarkably came through their fierce and feisty battle with New Zealand unscathed on the injury front, enabling Meninga to name an unchanged squad for this weekend's final.

That could mean World Cup history for two players, as Josh Addo-Carr now needs just one more try to break the all-time record for a single World Cup, having touched down for the 12th time this tournament against New Zealand.

Incidentally, Addo-Carr is looking to move clear of his teammate Valentine Holmes, who scored 12 tries at the 2017 World Cup and has increased his overall tally to 14 courtesy of his two in England so far. A hat-trick in the final would see Holmes overtake Billy Slater's all-time record of 16 World Cup tries.

Given their dominance of the sport over the years, it is no surprise that there are plenty of players in Australia's squad with World Cup final experience, but Daly Cherry-Evans was also there in 2013 when the Kangaroos won it at Old Trafford.

However, the experienced half-back is unlikely to make it into the starting lineup this weekend, with Nathan Cleary seemingly now Meninga's first choice in that position.

Josh Papali'i also featured for Australia in that 2013 final win at Old Trafford, although remarkably this time around he will be facing them in a World Cup final at the same venue, having switched his allegiance to Samoa.

The Pacific Islanders have been forced into one change to their squad for the final, with Fa'amanu Brown missing out after suffering concussion when clashing heads with his teammate Oregon Kaufusi in the semi-final.

Connelly Lemuelu comes into the 19-man squad in his absence, while Chanel Harris-Tavita will start at hooker in his final match before taking a break from the sport.

Daniel Levy has been forced to leave the camp and return home due to a family emergency, but prop Junior Paulo will be available after escaping further punishment for his lifting tackle on England's Tom Burgess in the semis.

Tim Lafai is the in-form dangerman for the underdogs, having scored eight tries in his last six Tests for Samoa, including six in four outings at this World Cup.

Australia squad

Josh Addo-Carr, Reagan Campbell-Gillard, Pat Carrigan, Daly Cherry-Evans, Nathan Cleary, Reuben Cotter, Angus Crichton, Tino Fa'asuamaleuai, Harry Grant, Valentine Holmes, Ben Hunt, Liam Martin, Latrell Mitchell, Cameron Munster, Cameron Murray, James Tedesco, Jake Trbojevic, Jack Wighton, Isaah Yeo

Samoa squad

Stephen Crichton, Chanel Harris-Tavita, Royce Hunt, Oregon Kaufusi, Tim Lafai, Connelly Lemuelu, Spencer Leniu, Jarome Luai, Taylan May, Anthony Milford, Josh Papalii, Junior Paulo, Ligi Sao, Ken Sio, Jaydn Su'a, Joseph Suaalii, Martin Taupau, Brian To'o, Kelma Tuilagi


Head To Head

These two sides have only ever met on three previous occasions, with Australia winning all of those comfortably.

The most recent of those clashes came in the 2017 World Cup quarter-final, when Samoa were unable to even lay a glove on the trophy-bound Kangaroos as the host nation surged to a 46-0 victory.

Their Four Nations clash in 2014 was a little closer, but still not particularly nervy for Australia as they ran out 44-18 winners, while their first meeting came at the 2000 World Cup when Australia won 66-10 at Vicarage Road in Watford.


SM words green background

We say: Australia 30-16 Samoa

As impressive as Samoa were in the semi-final, and even accounting for the fact that they are now closer to the level of the world's best than perhaps ever before, it is still hard to look past an Australia win this weekend.

The Kangaroos simply know how to win at this stage; their record at World Cups is scarcely believable and there is no end to the eye-catching statistics which underline their dominance.

For example, they have won their last 18 World Cup games on English soil by an average margin of 45 points, last failing to win a World Cup game in England more than 27 years ago.

Samoa are on their best run of form for 28 years, but to put that into context, that is a run of four straight wins, so it is easy to see why they are classed as such major underdogs for this match.

An upset is not completely beyond the realms of possibility considering what Samoa did to England in the semi-finals, but all logic points to an Australia win by a relatively comfortable margin.


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Written by
Barney Corkhill
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Game History

How you voted: Australia vs Samoa

Australia
66.7%
Draw
20.0%
Samoa
13.3%
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