In preparation for the Asian Cup, Saudi Arabia will play a series of friendly matches at Sealine Resort Stadium in Qatar, beginning on Thursday against Lebanon.
The Green Falcons ended 2023 with a 2-0 triumph over Jordan in 2026 World Cup qualifying, while the Cedars defeated Jordan 2-1 in a friendly last month.
Match preview
© Reuters
After a difficult opening to his tenure as manager, Roberto Mancini is getting the best out of his side, with Saudi Arabia winning their final two encounters of 2023, after the Italian had failed to win his first four matches in charge.
Most importantly, those two victories have them off to a perfect start in their second-round World Cup qualification group, sitting in first place with a 2-0 record and without a goal conceded.
In those two qualifying fixtures, Mancini employed a variation of the traditional 4-3-3 we often saw during his days as coach of Italy, going instead with a 4-5-1 defensive approach with the Green Falcons, utilising his wide midfielders to create chances in transition.
On Thursday, Saudi Arabia will begin a demanding stretch of games, playing three friendlies in less than a week before opening their Asian Cup campaign on January 16 against Oman.
Their victory over Jordan in November was only the second time in 2023 that this side won a match played outside Saudi Arabia, while they have lost two of their last three games which took place in Qatar.
The Green Falcons are unbeaten in their last four matches in all competitions versus Lebanon, winning three of those encounters, while they have not lost to them since a 2006 friendly in Riyadh (2-1).
© Reuters
In his first match back as the Lebanon manager, Miodrag Radulovic saw his Lebanese players overcome an early deficit near the end of 2023 and win for the first time since early September (1-0 over India).
The Montenegrin takes over from Croatian Nikola Jurcevic, who left under bizarre circumstances, with the national team announcing last month both sides had mutually parted ways, though neither side gave a reason as to why.
Jurevic had only been at the helm for two months before departing, with the Cedars now putting their trust back in a man who made history the last time he coached this team.
In 2019, under Radulovic, Lebanon qualified for the Asian Cup, winning their first-ever contest in that competition (4-1 over North Korea) in their first appearance since 2000 when they hosted the tournament as Radulovic registered as the first Montenegrin to help a national team qualify for a major tournament.
They come into this friendly having lost just one of their last eight competitive fixtures against teams from Asia, losing the 2023 Intercontinental Cup Final to India, 2-0.
Early into 2026 World Cup qualifying, Lebanon are in a position to get back into the third stage of that competition for a second successive campaign, with two points after two games, sitting second in Group I behind Australia following a 1-1 draw versus Bangladesh.
- L
- L
- L
- L
- D
- L
- L
- L
- W
- L
- L
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Yasser Al-Shahrani was not selected for the Saudis despite returning to training in November for his club side Al-Hilal after sustaining a severe facial injury in their 2022 World Cup triumph over Argentina.
Eid Al-Muwallad made his senior debut for the Green Falcons in their World Cup qualifying triumph over Jordan, replacing Saleh Al-Shehri, who notched a brace in that encounter, with Mohammed Al-Owais, who was not chosen for this friendly, collecting a clean sheet on that occasion.
Salem Al-Dawsari is their most experienced player selected for this encounter, earning 78 international caps, followed closely by Fahad Al-Muwallad at 76, with the latter scoring one of their two goals the last time they faced Lebanon in 2019 (2-0 win).
Nour Mansour can move to within one cap of Vardan Ghazaryan for ninth all-time in Lebanese footballing history, with the Ahed defender on 64 caps, well behind the Lebanon captain and record cap holder Hassan Maatouk (115).
Maher Sabra can make his 20th appearance for the national team on Thursday, Kassem El Zein is one away from 40 and Hilal El-Helwe is one shy of 50.
In his 88th appearance, Mohamad Haidar netted his fifth goal for the Cedars in their friendly against Jordan before Mansour scored the winner from the penalty spot in the 90th minute.
Saudi Arabia possible starting lineup:
Al-Rubaie; Al-Bulaihi, Al-Saluli, Al-Tambakti; Abdulhamid, Ali, Al-Ghamdi, Al-Hassan, Yahya; Al-Buraikan, Al-Shehri
Lebanon possible starting lineup:
Khalil; El Zein, Mansour, Chaitou; Nassar, El Hindi, Ayoub, Shour, Haidar; Maatouk, Bugiel
We say: Saudi Arabia 2-0 Lebanon
The Green Falcons seemed to find their form near the end of 2023 and should be able to carry that momentum into this friendly.
Given their experience in big tournaments and overall quality, we believe Saudi Arabia will overwhelm a Lebanese side still figuring out their identity under new management.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Saudi Arabia win with a probability of 40.9%. A win for Lebanon had a probability of 33.18% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Saudi Arabia win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.71%) and 2-0 (6.98%). The likeliest Lebanon win was 0-1 (8.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.31%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Saudi Arabia in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Saudi Arabia.
Joel Lefevre
