Leaders Bragantino travel to struggling Sao Paulo on Sunday, where they seek to extend an excellent start to their Campeonato Brasileiro campaign.
Unbeaten in Serie A so far, the Red Bull-backed outfit have won five of their first eight fixtures as they aim for a first-ever title, while their more illustrious opponents are yet to taste victory.
Match preview
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Sao Paulo have suffered a particularly underwhelming start to the 2021 season by their own lofty standards, lingering in the drop zone and still looking to record their first league win.
Hernan Crespo's side currently sit 17th in the top flight with just five points from their opening eight games; just three points above basement side Gremio, who have played two games fewer.
The Tricolor Paulista come into this weekend's clash on a run of three consecutive draws, though, since losing the San-Sao derby to old rivals Santos last month.
Following draws with Cuiaba and Ceara, the six-time national champions were unable to break the deadlock in a goalless game at Corinthians on Thursday, leaving them with a paltry tally of four league goals so far this term - an indicator of their most obvious deficiency.
No stranger to putting the ball in the back of the net during his playing days, Crespo has a modest win rate as a manager since taking his first senior role at Modena six years ago, and will feel he still has much to prove now in charge of one of Brazil's most feted sides.
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After enjoying a 1-0 win over Atletico Goianiense last weekend, with a late goal strengthening their grip on the early-season top spot, Bragantino took on mid-table Ceara on Thursday.
Though a goalless draw at home to relatively modest opponents may have seemed an underwhelming result - especially having had nearly two-thirds of the ball - it keeps Braga's bandwagon rolling coming into a fortnight when they will face second-placed Athletico Paranaense and then return to Copa Sudamericana action.
Before they meet Colombia's America de Cali in the last 16 of the continental competition, Mauricio Barbieri's side find themselves in the rare position - historically speaking - of being favourites to beat Sao Paulo at the iconic Morumbi.
Notwithstanding a rare blank in midweek, the 2019 Serie B champions' haul of 17 goals is the best return of any team in the division, with well-travelled striker Ytalo leading the way with four goals - including a memorable hat-trick against Palmeiras - in a team that has shared the goalscoring burden.
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Team News
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Sao Paulo's former Barcelona right-back Dani Alves, now aged 38, recently returned from an injury layoff and has been deployed both out wide and as a creative midfielder by Hernan Crespo, in the Argentine coach's preferred 3-5-2. The 118-times capped Brazil star is set to join Igor Liziero in the centre on Sunday.
One time Inter Milan and Italy forward Eder is expected to keep his place up front, despite having only netted one goal in eight league appearances this season, with either Luciano or young Martin Benitez in support. In defence, meanwhile, veteran Portugal defender Bruno Alves will helm the back three.
The hosts have been dealing with several injuries, including to Gabriel Sara, William da Silva and cruciate ligament victim Walce, but have a large squad to compensate.
Bragantino, on the other hand, have a more modest playing staff, but will soon have Jan Hurtado back from Copa America duty with Venezuela after his nation exited the competition - he is unlikely to feature here, however.
Both Claudinho and on-loan left-back Luan Candido are yet to return from their respective thigh injuries, while Gabriel Novaes and Bruno Tubarao are expected to remain out of action this week.
Sao Paulo possible starting lineup:
Volpi; Leo, B. Alves, Miranda; Rigoni, D. Alves, Welington, Liziero, Gomes; Eder, Luciano
Bragantino possible starting lineup:
Cleiton; Weverton, Bruno, Natan, Edimar; Evangelista, Raul; Artur, Zirlo, Helinho; Ytalo
We say: Sao Paulo 1-1 Bragantino
Though one of Brazil's megaclubs have made a listless start to the season, recent draws have somewhat steadied the ship, so a talent-packed if incoherent Sao Paulo squad can add another point to their meagre tally.
Ambitious upstarts Bragantino, meanwhile, are exceeding expectations and will be pleased to at least maintain their undefeated start to what is set to be an exciting campaign for the reborn club.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 42.4%. A win for Bragantino had a probability of 30.51% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.64%) and 2-0 (7.86%). The likeliest Bragantino win was 0-1 (9.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.
