UEFA Nations League

[monks data]

Nations League | League B

Sep 6, 2020 at 5pm UK

Aviva Stadium

Rep. Ireland
0 - 1
Finland

Molumby (66'), Arter (86')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Jensen (64')
O'Shaughnessy (89')

Preview: Republic of Ireland vs. Finland - prediction, team news, lineups

By Darren Plant, Senior Reporter

Published: September 4 2020 | 16:45

Last updated: June 5 2024 | 13:45

Sports Mole previews Sunday's UEFA Nations League fixture between Republic of Ireland and Finland, including team news and injury news.

Republic of Ireland head into their home encounter against Finland having began their UEFA Nations League campaign with a last-gasp draw in Bulgaria.

Meanwhile, Finland make the trip to Dublin on the back of a narrow defeat to Wales, a result which leaves them bottom of Group B4.

Match preview

Stephen Kenny pictured in charge of Republic of Ireland for the first time on September 3, 2020 © Reuters

Having had to bide his time in replacing Mick McCarthy as Republic of Ireland boss, Stephen Kenny would have accepted that he was under pressure to deliver an immediate return against Bulgaria on Thursday evening.

However, despite only claiming a share of the spoils in Sofia, positives will be taken from how the Green Army battled back to net a 93rd-minute equaliser through Shane Duffy.

The result leaves Republic of Ireland trailing Wales after the opening game, but there will be a feeling that getting the better of Finland at the weekend would represent an excellent start under new management.

Nevertheless, Thursday's encounter again highlighted that improvements need to be made in the final third, with the result extending a run without scoring more than twice in a competitive fixture to 23 matches.

Although Norwich City youngster Adam Idah will be given time to adapt to the rigours of international football, Republic of Ireland need to score more goals from open play if they wish to enjoy success over the coming months.

Finland head into their next contest having succumbed to Wales in Helsinki, losing out to a goal which was netted 10 minutes from time.

The visitors deserved their success, however, and it leaves the Scandinavian nation searching for ways to improve ahead of their appearance at Euro 2020.

With four defeats having now been recorded from their last half-a-dozen contests, there is a feeling that Markku Kanerva's team may have already peaked ahead of their first-ever outing at a major tournament.

That said, Kanerva will see the absence of several of his key men as an opportunity to hand chances to other players, hoping that the end result is less reliance being placed on Teemu Pukki.

Republic of Ireland Nations League form: D
Republic of Ireland form (all competitions): WDLWDD

Finland Nations League form: L
Finland form (all competitions): LLWWLL

Team News

Callum Robinson pictured for Sheffield United on August 10, 2019 © Reuters

If Idah is brought out of the spotlight, Callum Robinson could be preferred down the middle of the Republic of Ireland attack.

Seamus Coleman and James McClean are also both pushing for a recall, especially with Kenny likely to take match fitness into consideration.

Matt Doherty could drop out of the team after having his previous campaign prolonged through Wolverhampton Wanderers' run in the Europa League.

As for Finland, Fredrik Jensen, Thomas Lam and Pyry Soiri are all in contention to be used from kickoff after featuring late on against Wales.

Republic of Ireland possible starting lineup:
Randolph; Coleman, Duffy, Egan, Stevens; McCarthy, Hourihane; McClean, Hendrick, Brady; Robinson

Finland possible starting lineup:
Hradecky; Vaeisaenen, Ojala, O'Shaughnessy; Niskanen, Kamara, Sparv, Kauko, Uronen; Pohjanpalo, Pukki

SM words green background

We say: Republic of Ireland 1-1 Finland

Like in Bulgaria, the onus is on Republic of Ireland to produce a forward-thinking performance. However, like occurred for Finland against Wales, it may not necessarily play into their favour. With that in mind, we are backing another low-scoring draw for Kenny's men.

Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.

Written by
Darren Plant

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Republic of Ireland win with a probability of 44.81%. A win for Finland had a probability of 28.58% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Republic of Ireland win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.92%) and 2-0 (8.32%). The likeliest Finland win was 0-1 (8.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.62%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood.