Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barnsley win with a probability of 39.24%. A win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 34.85% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barnsley win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.53%) and 2-0 (6.6%). The likeliest Cheltenham Town win was 0-1 (8.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.3%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Barnsley in this match.