One of the biggest rivalries in the Brasileiro is renewed on Saturday, as Internacional host relegation-threatened Gremio in the Porto Alegre derby.
The football-obsessed city in the south of Brazil will come to a standstill when the battle commences at Estadio Beira-Rio, and the visitors are in desperate need of points to salvage their Serie A status.
Match preview
© Reuters
Despite a setback last weekend, Internacional have continued their improvement since a slow start to the season saw them win just two of their first 11 outings. In fact, their form over recent months has helped them into contention for a Copa Libertadores place next year, and they sit seventh in the table ahead of the weekend's action.
Having lost just two of their previous 15 matches, the side managed by Diego Aguirre - who has overseen an upturn in fortunes since being appointed in the summer - were beaten at Sao Paulo last time out.
Inter had previously netted a 92nd-minute equaliser against Corinthians to draw 2-2, but they are now without a win in four games and in danger of letting a top-six spot slip through their fingers - a year after the league title narrowly eluded them.
Looking to get back on track, the Colorado will now be pitched into a dogfight with their bitterest foes, in the notorious 'Grenal' derby.
As a measure of the antipathy they share with their Porto Alegre counterparts, their last Copa Libertadores clash - before the competition was shut down due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 - ended in 15 minutes of mayhem.
A free-for-all that resulted in a total of eight red cards, including three players and a substitute from each side, brought to an end the pair's goalless draw on that occasion. Inter will certainly be hoping to avoid such a spectacle this time around, as they seek to improve their own standing and - as a bonus - help consign their rivals to relegation next month.
© Reuters
Frustrations at Gremio's decline towards the second tier spilled over from the stands on to the turf last weekend, as their fans invaded the pitch and destroyed VAR equipment after having a goal ruled out for offside in a 3-1 defeat to Palmeiras.
While brawls also broke out on the terraces, the players sought refuge in the dressing room, and such chaos symbolises how badly the 2021 campaign has progressed for the Tricolor to date.
Having sacked Luiz Felipe Scolari last month for failing to reverse a worrying downward trend, current coach Vagner Mancini has yet to make much of an impact on results - though Gremio did manage to beat fellow strugglers Juventude soon after his appointment.
Still with at least two games in hand on the clubs immediately above them, Mancini's men are stuck inside the drop zone, some seven points adrift of safety - so a derby win could prove the catalyst for a late revival.
When they last met Internacional, back in July, Scolari had just returned for a fourth spell in the Gremio dugout, and a goalless draw ensued. With games fast running out, though, the visitors may need more than a valiant point from this encounter.
- W
- W
- L
- D
- D
- L
- D
- L
- L
- W
- L
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Internacional opted to put Yuri Alberto on the bench last weekend, as they went goalless against Sao Paulo, so the highly-rated 20-year-old could now come back into the starting XI for the derby.
One of the top scorers in the Brasileiro this season with 11 goals, he has not found the net in his last four matches. However, the Brazil Under-23 international's form over the course of the campaign has seen him linked with Manchester City, Arsenal and Everton in recent days.
Diego Aguirre has Gabriel Mercado, Patrick and Rodrigo Dourado back at his disposal following their return from suspension, though Moises and Taison are both doubts due to injury.
The visitors, meanwhile, are relatively absence-free, as Paulo Miranda returns from a ban and could replace veteran Pedro Geromel at the heart of the Gremio back four.
It is possible that Vagner Mancini will consider further changes as a result of last week's loss, and the underperforming Douglas Costa will be fearing for his place in support of star striker Diego Souza.
Internacional possible starting lineup:
Marcelo; Saravia, Mercado, Cuesta, Victor; Dourado, Lindoso; Edenilson, Patrick, Maia; Alberto
Gremio possible starting lineup:
Brenno; Vanderson, Miranda, Kannemann, Cortez; Villasanti, Santos; Alisson, Pyerre, Costa; Souza
We say: Internacional 1-0 Gremio
An opportunity to pile further misery on their most loathed opponents cannot be missed by Internacional - particularly when their need for maximum points is growing greater due to recent results.
Gremio do not provide enough of a threat in the final third, with only 24 goals so far telling the tale of a grim season, which could be about to get much grimmer if derby defeat leads to demotion in December.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Internacional win with a probability of 50.89%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Gremio had a probability of 23.02%.
The most likely scoreline for a Internacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.04%) and 2-1 (9.2%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.26%), while for a Gremio win it was 0-1 (8.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Internacional in this match.
