Fluminense can remain above the relegation line on Friday when they welcome Brasileiro Serie A contenders Fortaleza to the Maracana.
After 33 league fixtures, Flu are barely above that line following a 2-0 defeat at Internacional, while the club from Ceara are coming off a 3-0 win versus Vasco da Gama, moving to within a point of Palmeiras for second place.
Match preview
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The 2023 Copa Libertadores winners are cutting it close in their battle to remain in Serie A beyond this season, claiming just one point in their previous three league games.
Their margin for error is razor-thin, as they are only above Criciuma and Juventude for that final relegation position by possessing one more win.
Three of their final five encounters in this competition occur in Rio de Janeiro, where they have collected seven points in their last three league games, including two clean sheets.
Throughout the top-flight campaign, Mano Menezes has struggled to unlock this group's attack, with Fluzao scoring the third-fewest goals in the league this year (28).
Only two of their final five contests are against teams that currently boast more points than them (Fortaleza and Palmeiras), with Fluminense losing three of their four domestic meetings this year against top-four opposition.
Nense are unbeaten in their last three matches with Fortaleza across all competitions, including back-to-back domestic victories against them in Rio.
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We are two matches into November, and the Fortaleza attack seems to be reinvigorated, collecting consecutive convincing 3-0 league victories.
The 2023 Copa Sudamericana runners-up are on a four-match unbeaten run in this competition, conceding a goal or fewer on three of those occasions.
That consistency has guaranteed them, at worst, a place in the Copa Libertadores qualifiers next year, while they hold a four-point cushion in the battle for one of the four automatic spots in that tournament.
Their victory over Vasco da Gama put them up to 18 in the top flight this year, their most ever since Juan Pablo Vojvoda took charge, while only five points currently separate them from Botafogo for first.
In 2024, this team have picked up 20 points away from home in league play, though defensively they have not been that sharp outside the Castelao, conceding 24 of their 32 league goals as the visitors.
Leao do Pici have not won an away match in the Brazilian top-flight at the Maracana since 2021, when a pair of second-half goals helped them to a 2-0 triumph.
Team News
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There is only one injury concern for Fluzao heading into this encounter, as Ignacio is a few weeks away from a potential return after hurting his knee, while Felipe Melo is eligible to return from suspension.
We saw five changes made to their starting 11 on matchday 33, with Vitor Eudes, Manoel, Facundo Bernal, Guga and German Cano replacing Fabio, Thiago Santos, Jhon Arias, Ganso and Kaua Elias.
On the Fortaleza side, Lucas Sasha is doubtful with a calf strain, Pedro Augusto has a sore groin, Tomas Cardona is dealing with a thigh injury and Matheus Rossetto will have to sit due to yellow card accumulation.
Against Vasco, Emmanuel Martinez notched the winner 13 minutes into that contest, his first goal of the 2024 Serie A campaign, with the other strikes coming courtesy of substitutes Breno Lopes and Renato Kayzer.
Fluminense possible starting lineup:
Fabio; Xavier, Silva, Manoel, Barbosa; Martinelli, Augusto; Marquinhos, Lima, Keno; Elias
Fortaleza possible starting lineup:
Ricardo; Tinga, Kuscevic, Titi, Mancuso; Marinho, Hercules, Pochettino; Lopes; Lucero, Moises
We say: Fluminense 2-1 Fortaleza
Relegation is a distinct possibility for Fluminense at the moment, which should raise their urgency level down the stretch of the season.
Fortaleza are a different team away from home, particularly on the back end, and we believe Flu will be able to expose that flaw on Friday.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
