MX23RW : Wednesday, December 25 14:38:09| >> :60:1765:1765:
Flamengo
Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
Jun 29, 2023 at 1.30am UK
Estadio Jornalista Mario Filho

Flamengo
4 - 0
Aucas

Pedro (9'), Pereira (30'), Henrique (42'), Hugo (55')
Ribeiro (48'), De Arrascaeta (60')
FT(HT: 3-0)

Corozo (90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa Libertadores clash between Flamengo and Aucas, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Flamengo

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Santos 2-3 Flamengo
Sunday, June 25 at 10.30pm in Brasileiro

Aucas

All competitions
Last Game: Aucas 0-0 Nublense
Thursday, June 8 at 1am in Copa Libertadores

We said: Flamengo 2-0 Aucas

 Flamengo showed considerable grit and determination to come out on top of a five-goal thriller on the weekend, meaning they should be confident of easing past their Ecuadorian opponents on Wednesday night. Aucas will have an incentive to be aggressive considering a result could earn them a place in the Sudamericana, but we can envisage a fourth and final loss of the group stage for Farias's charges. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 84.74%. A draw had a probability of 10.6% and a win for Aucas had a probability of 4.62%.

The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (12.66%) and 4-0 (9.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.06%), while for an Aucas win it was 0-1 (1.73%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Flamengo would win this match.

Result
FlamengoDrawAucas
84.74% (0.155 0.16) 10.64% (-0.1 -0.1) 4.62% (-0.064 -0.06)
Both teams to score 41.06% (-0.059999999999995 -0.06)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
67.78% (0.188 0.19)32.21% (-0.197 -0.2)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
46.18% (0.223 0.22)53.81% (-0.231 -0.23)
Flamengo Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
94.62% (0.057000000000002 0.06)5.37% (-0.065 -0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
78.91% (0.184 0.18)21.08% (-0.193 -0.19)
Aucas Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
43.4% (-0.092999999999996 -0.09)56.6% (0.085000000000001 0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
11.18% (-0.055000000000001 -0.06)88.81% (0.046999999999997 0.05)
Score Analysis
    Flamengo 84.72%
    Aucas 4.62%
    Draw 10.64%
FlamengoDrawAucas
2-0 @ 12.99% (-0.029999999999999 -0.03)
3-0 @ 12.66% (0.02 0.02)
4-0 @ 9.26% (0.055 0.05)
1-0 @ 8.89% (-0.058 -0.06)
2-1 @ 7.4% (-0.037 -0.04)
3-1 @ 7.21% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
5-0 @ 5.42% (0.055 0.05)
4-1 @ 5.27% (0.018 0.02)
5-1 @ 3.08% (0.023 0.02)
6-0 @ 2.64% (0.038 0.04)
3-2 @ 2.05% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
6-1 @ 1.5% (0.018 0.02)
4-2 @ 1.5% (0.00099999999999989 0)
7-0 @ 1.1% (0.02 0.02)
Other @ 3.75%
Total : 84.72%
1-1 @ 5.06% (-0.047000000000001 -0.05)
0-0 @ 3.04% (-0.032 -0.03)
2-2 @ 2.11% (-0.016 -0.02)
Other @ 0.43%
Total : 10.64%
0-1 @ 1.73% (-0.023 -0.02)
1-2 @ 1.44% (-0.017 -0.02)
Other @ 1.45%
Total : 4.62%

How you voted: Flamengo vs Aucas

Flamengo
100%
Draw
0.0%
Aucas
0.0%
8
Head to Head
Apr 5, 2023 11pm
Group Stage
Aucas
2-1
Flamengo
Castillo (58'), Ordonez (85')
Franca (39')
rhs 2.0
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