National League outfit Boreham Wood welcome League One side AFC Wimbledon to Meadow Park in the third round of the FA Cup on Saturday, when the home team will be looking to progress into the fourth round for the first time in their history.
The visitors have prolonged their FA Cup run from the previous two seasons, having last made it past this round during the 2018-19 campaign when they were knocked out in round five.
Match preview
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Luke Garrard's side played out a game to remember in the club's history to progress into the third round, having beaten rivals St Albans 4-0 at Meadow Park thanks to goals from Gus Mafuta, Adrian Clifton and a brace from Josh Rees.
Boreham Wood's winter schedule has been disrupted due to coronavirus with two of their matches against Grimsby and Barent postponed, but the Wood were back in action in the National League last weekend.
The rearranged Barnet game took place on Sunday and fourth-placed Boreham Wood were held to a goalless draw by the team in 15th spot, meaning that the Wood still have the best defensive record in the league.
Garrard's side have only conceded 13 goals in 19 matches, and just four of those goals have been conceded on their own patch, boding well for the home team on Saturday.
Wimbledon currently sit 18th in League One and only three points above the relegation zone, and in contrast to their hosts this weekend, Mark Robinson's side have let in 35 league goals in 21 matches.
The Dons have also had disruptions in recent weeks with two of their games being cancelled, so last time out they travelled to the Kassam Stadium where they faced Oxford United.
That turned out to not be a good day at the office for Wimbledon, who fell to a 3-0 defeat against the Yellows, having not managed to create half as many chances on goal as their hosts.
Robinson's side were involved in a seven-goal thriller in round two of this competition, eventually beating Cheltenham Town 4-3 after the visitors gave Wimbledon a late scare of a comeback.
Saturday's away team will be looking to avoid a cup upset but they need to get back to winning ways, having not tasted victory since the beginning of December, albeit with postponed matches.
This will be the first meeting between these two London clubs since December 2009, when Wimbledon came out on top with a 2-1 win over Boreham Wood in the FA Trophy.
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Team News
Boreham Wood centre-back Will Evans received a double yellow card against Woking but he will be available for selection after serving his suspension in their league matches.
The home side are expected to start with Tyrone Marsh and Scott Boden leading the line as a pair, while Jacob Mendy and Kane Smith will provide the width from their wing-back positions.
Evans, David Stephens and Jamal Fyfield are likely to start as the back three for the Wood, and they will aim to protect goalkeeper Taye Ashby-Hammond.
Wimbledon will line up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, with Ollie Palmer leading the line looking to add to his four goals this season and Jack Rudoni providing a big attacking threat from the left wing.
Ayoub Assal scored a brace in the last round against Cheltenham, and he is expected to start on the opposite flank to Rudoni, with Alex Woodyard and Anthony Hartigan protecting the middle of the pitch.
Boreham Wood possible starting lineup:
Ashby-Hammond; Fyfield, Stephens, Evans; Mendy, Rees, Ricketts, Mafuta, Smith; Boden, Marsh
AFC Wimbledon possible starting lineup:
Tzanev; Guinness-Walker; Csoka, Heneghan, Osew; Hartigan, Woodyard; Rudoni, McCormick, Assal; Palmer
We say: Boreham Wood 1-2 AFC Wimbledon
Boreham Wood are certain to give their League One opposition a tough game and the visitors will come under pressure at Meadow Park, with a vibrant crowd behind the home team.
However, Wimbledon are not in such bad form having only lost once in their last six outings in all competitions, and their third-tier superiority should see them edge through this round.
Top tip
Sammy Wynne
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boreham Wood win with a probability of 46.33%. A win for AFC Wimbledon had a probability of 28.25% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boreham Wood win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.24%) and 2-0 (8.13%). The likeliest AFC Wimbledon win was 0-1 (7.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.08%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Boreham Wood would win this match.
