Athletico Paranaense will be looking to close the gap at the top of the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A table when they host Fortaleza on Saturday.
The hosts have had no problems scoring goals so far this campaign, finding the net in each of their opening seven league games, while the visitors have failed to score in both of their last two away matches.
Match preview
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After losing 2-1 to Bahia and drawing 2-2 with Chapecoense in their previous two league matches, Athletico Paranaense bounced back with an impressive 4-1 away victory against Fluminense on Wednesday.
They did not get off to the best of starts, however, as Fred headed in the opener for the hosts just two minutes into the game; Antonio Oliveira's men then responded in the 26th minute when Richard fired in the equaliser, sending both sides into half time level.
After the break, Paranaense improved and dominated the second half, creating several chances. They eventually took the lead in the 73rd minute when a brilliant 25-yard strike from Vitinho flew into the top right corner, before goals from Ze Ivaldo and Nikao ensured they were taking home all three points.
That result has helped Oliveira's side climb to second place in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A table, one point behind league leaders Bragantino, who they will face in a weeks' time.
Paranaense have a good record against Fortaleza, winning each of their last four meetings against them in the last two years, and another victory on Saturday could help them climb to the summit.
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After four league games without a victory, Fortaleza claimed all three points against Chapecoense on Wednesday, when they came from behind to win 3-2 on home soil with 10 men.
The visitors broke the deadlock in the 35th minute when Anselmo Ramon converted from the penalty spot, but after the break Fortaleza came out fighting and equalised five minutes into the second half thanks to David. Things did get tougher for the hosts just four minutes later when defender Juan Sebastian Quintero was shown a second yellow card.
However, Juan Pablo Vojvoda's side were able to cope with 10 men, as Robson and Yago Pikachu found the net midway through the second half to double their lead. Chapecoense pulled one back in the final 10 minutes through Pedro Perotti but Fortaleza were able to hold on for the victory.
Despite that win, the Lion of the Pici remain fourth in the table, one point behind Saturday's opponents Athletico Paranaense, having played a game more.
Fortaleza have only won one of their last eight meetings against Paranaense, winning 2-1 on home soil in May 2019, but a victory this weekend could seem them leapfrog their opponents.
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Team News
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Athletico Paranaense's only injury concern is with defender Lucas Halter who has been ruled out for the rest of the season with a foot injury.
Right-back Marcinho and central midfielder Richard returned to the first XI for the last match, after previously serving one-match suspensions, and they are both set to keep their places ahead of Khellven and Leo Cittadini.
Matheus Babi is expected to lead the line once again as the lone striker, while support from the flanks could be provided by David Terans and Vitinho.
As for Fortaleza, they remain without Matheus Jussa (shoulder), Gustavo Blanco (thigh) and Jackson (knee) due to injury, while Isaque will hope to return after missing the last match because of a positive coronavirus test.
With Quintero suspended, Tinga is set to be recalled to the first XI and start in the back three alongside Titi and Marcelo Benevenuto, which will shield goalkeeper Felipe Alves.
Robson began the last match on the bench, but after scoring against Chapecoense, the forward could be handed a start ahead of either Romarinho or Matheus Vargas.
Athletico Paranaense possible starting lineup:
Santos; Marcinho, Ivaldo, Heleno, Henrique, Vinicius; Terans, Richard, Cittadini, Vitinho; Babi
Fortaleza possible starting lineup:
Alves; Titi, Benevento, Tinga; Pikachu, Ronald, Ederson, Crispim; Vargas; Robson, David
We say: Athletico Paranaense 2-1 Fortaleza
Despite a few slight setbacks, both Athletico Paranaense and Fortaleza have started the campaign strongly – currently sitting inside the top four – and both teams will fancy their chances of claiming all three points on Saturday.
The hosts will be the slight favourites for this contest and may just edge a closely-fought encounter at the Arena da Baixada.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletico Paranaense win with a probability of 48.02%. A draw had a probability of 27.5% and a win for Fortaleza had a probability of 24.53%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletico Paranaense win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.73%) and 2-1 (8.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.7%), while for a Fortaleza win it was 0-1 (9.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Athletico Paranaense would win this match.
