The reigning Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A champions, Atletico Mineiro, have first place within reach as they host Sao Paulo on Sunday at Mineirao.
Atletico sit two points behind the leaders Palmeiras heading into this encounter, while Sao Paulo have only suffered one defeat in their previous seven domestic road fixtures.
Match preview
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It took a long time, but the persistent attacking of Mineiro eventually paid off as they converted a 79th-minute penalty on Tuesday to outlast a pesky Emelec side in the round of 16 of the Copa Libertadores, winning 1-0 and advancing 2-1 on aggregate.
With that hurdle cleared, the focus for Antonio Mohamed and his side shifts to the league, where Galo have points in five successive contests.
Thanks to a pair of slip-ups from Palestra, they are in the thick of a heated race for the Serie A crown where the top four teams are all within one victory of first place.
In their championship-winning campaign, it was around this point when they made their move, jumping into the league lead on matchday 15 and remaining there for the rest of 2021, claiming their first domestic title in 50 years.
Under Mohamed, they tend to move up the field with long, direct balls forward and are one of the leading teams in Serie A regarding progressive passing.
While they have not lost a home fixture in Serie A since May 7, Galo have needed some good fortune and resiliency at times to earn three points.
They managed to erase a one-goal deficit with two second-half strikes against Avai (2-1) in late May and then scored three times in the final 15 minutes plus stoppage time to defeat Fortaleza 3-2 after trailing by two within a half hour.
Defensively, Atletico have looked nearly flawless at home versus Sao Paulo, without a loss against them since 2017, conceding only once over that stretch.
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Sao Paulo picked up right where they left off at the end of last month, having now scored multiple goals in three consecutive matches in all competitions.
Any doubt about their ability to close the deal against Universidad Catolica at the Copa Sudamericana was quickly put to rest on Thursday, as they took a 2-0 lead into half-time before cruising to a comfortable 4-1 win, capturing the tie, 8-3.
Rogerio Ceni has this group feeling supremely confident right now, and it is evident in their play on the field as they do not look as timid as they did under Hernan Crespo a year ago, and have not shown any fear to attack teams through the middle.
Finding the mark first has allowed them to settle into a nice rhythm on the field, scoring within the opening half-hour in three straight contests and losing only once in their previous 12 matches in all competitions when tallying the opener.
Currently sitting seventh in the table is a massive improvement from where they were in 2021, when they were fighting to avoid relegation throughout the majority of their first 19 games.
A strong collective effort with contributions across the board have allowed them to be in contention for some silverware this year, as six different players have found the back of the net in at least one of their matches over the past week.
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Team News
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Hulk came through for Atletico once again on Tuesday, as his goal from the penalty spot sent them into the quarter-finals of the Libertadores for a second successive campaign, while Everson only had to make one save to collect the clean sheet.
Nacho Fernandez continues to be a key contributor in the midfield, currently tied for second in the league with three assists, while Eduardo Sasha tallied the winner last Saturday in a 2-1 win over Juventude.
Ademir is unlikely to be fully recovered from his positive COVID-19 test, Keno has a thigh injury and Jair continues to recover from a broken hand.
Guilherme Arana, Calebe and Hulk were the only players who started in their previous domestic encounter to keep their place in the starting 11 on Tuesday.
Luciano was the star of the show for Sao Paulo in their knockout tie versus La Catolica, scoring a total of three goals over both legs, while Eder, Joao Moreira and Rodriguinho all tallied in their victory earlier this week.
Jonathan Calleri missed that game because of a red card suspension but will be available to return for this one as he sits even with German Cano for the league lead with nine goals, while Rafinha, Welington and Alisson are tied for the team lead in assists with two.
Alisson (sprained knee) is one of many Sao Paulo players currently on the injured list, a list which includes Gabriel Sara (sprained knee), Andres Colorado (thigh), Luan (thigh), Robert Arboleda (broken ankle) and Caio (ACL).
Atletico Mineiro possible starting lineup:
Everson; Mariano, Nathan, Rever, Arana; Otavio; Zaracho, Fernandez, Neto, Vargas; Hulk
Sao Paulo possible starting lineup:
Jandrei; Costa, Miranda, Leo; Welington, Nestor, Gomes, Vinicius; Patrick, Luciano; Calleri
We say: Atletico Mineiro 1-0 Sao Paulo
Despite the quality that both teams possess in the attack, we anticipate this will be a cagey affair as Sao Paulo like to keep things tight and are not as aggressive away from home, while Mineiro tend to take some time to settle into a match.
Galo always seem to find a way to get the job done on their home field, and having an extra couple of days to rest should be enough to see them narrowly defeat Tricolor Paulista.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
