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Preview: Olympics: Novak Djokovic vs. Carlos Alcaraz - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Paris Olympics gold medal match between Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

Merely a matter of weeks after their battle for Wimbledon supremacy - which was not much of a battle in all honesty - Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz renew hostilities on Sunday with an Olympic gold medal on the line.

The reigning SW19 and French Open champion - now the youngest man to make an Olympics final - made extremely light work of Felix Auger-Aliassime in the semi-finals, while his Serbian foe, the oldest man in a Games gold medal match, denied Lorenzo Musetti a shot at Parisian stardom.


Match preview

Novak Djokovic celebrates at the Paris Olympics in August 2024© Imago

Sixteen years on from winning his first and only Olympic Games medal to date - a brilliant bronze in Beijing - Djokovic collapsed in euphoria on Court Philippe-Chatrier after ending Musetti's chances of gold on Sunday, marching to his fifth successive straight-sets win.

Having already seen off Matthew Ebden, Rafael Nadal, Dominik Koepfer and Stefanos Tsitsipas en route to a guaranteed shot at a medal, Djokovic posted a 6-4 6-2 triumph over his Italian foe in one hour and 49 minutes, finally wearing Musetti down after an engrossing first set.

After holding his own for the most part in the opener, a poorly-executed drop shot from Musetti handed Djokovic the critical break, before a trade of four breaks at the start of the second set preceded an unstoppable Serbian surge into the gold medal match.

The 24-time major winner let two match points slip through his grasp, but the third time was the charm for the 37-year-old as he advanced to his maiden Olympic singles final, in what will surely be his final chance to conquer the quadrennial extravaganza.

Reaching the Games final without dropping a set represents a significant change in Roland-Garros fortunes for Djokovic, whose knee memorably forced him to pull out of this year's French Open, but the 37-year-old has admitted that his previous injury is still giving him grief on the Parisian dirt.

Carlos Alcaraz pictured at the Paris Olympics in August 2024© Imago

Whether Djokovic's knee problem bedevils him at the worst possible time on Sunday remains to be seen, but his youthful foe Alcaraz has been operating at peak physical condition throughout his debut Olympics campaign, which will conclude with a silver at the very worst.

Similarly to his Serbian opponent, the second seed has also cruised into the gold medal contest without dropping a single set, eliminating Hady Habib, Tallon Griekspoor, Roman Safiullin and Tommy Paul and most recently a beleaguered Auger-Aliassime.

Offering the Philippe-Chatrier crowd a drop-shot masterclass, Alcaraz needed just 75 minutes to dismantle the Canadian 6-1 6-1, breaking Auger-Aliassime on five occasions and experiencing hardly any difficulty behind his own serve all afternoon.

Also showcasing his unparalleled athleticism, Alcaraz was equally strong deep behind the baseline on return and at the net - winning 10 of his 11 points from close range in the semi-final - while only committing 13 unforced errors in a near-faultless performance.

The 21-year-old follows Jordi Arrese, Sergi Bruguera and Nadal as just the fourth Spanish man to reach the Olympic singles final, and having witnessed the latter succumb to a thrashing at the hands of Djokovic, avenging his former Games double partner is just extra motivation to deny Djokovic a Career Golden Slam (all four majors plus Olympics) and the Career Super Slam (four majors, Olympics and year-end finals).


Tournament so far

Novak Djokovic:

First round: vs. Matthew Ebden 6-0 6-1
Second round: vs. Rafael Nadal 6-1 6-4
Third round: vs. Dominik Koepfer 7-5 6-3
Quarter-final: vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas 6-3 7-6[3]
Semi-final: vs. Lorenzo Musetti 6-4 6-2

Carlos Alcaraz:

First round: vs. Hady Habib 6-3 6-1
Second round: vs. Tallon Griekspoor 6-1 7-6[3]
Third round: vs. Roman Safiullin 6-4 6-2
Quarter-final: vs. Tommy Paul 6-3 7-6[7]
Semi-final: vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime 6-1 6-1


Head To Head

Madrid Open (2022) - Semi-final: Alcaraz wins 6-7[5] 7-5 7-6[5]

French Open (2023) - Semi-final: Djokovic wins 6-3 5-7 6-1 6-1

Wimbledon (2023) - Final: Alcaraz wins 1-6 7-6[6] 6-1 3-6 6-4

Cincinnati Masters (2023) - Final: Djokovic wins 5-7 7-6[7] 7-6[4]

ATP Finals (2023) - Semi-final: Djokovic wins 6-3 6-2

Wimbledon (2024) - Final: Alcaraz wins 6-2 6-2 7-6[4]

Sunday's unmissable final will be the seventh instalment in the Alcaraz-Djokovic rivalry, which has seen both men earn a trio of victories over the other, with the 21-year-old's most recent triumph coming on the Wimbledon lawns.

On that day, the Centre Court were left astonished by the manner in which Alcaraz demolished the Serbian, whose brief third-set fightback was in vain, but Djokovic won their only previous contest at Stade Roland Garros last year.

However, Alcaraz was hampered by injury in the second half of that French Open semi-final, where Djokovic dropped just two games in the final two sets before winning his most recent clay crown.


SM words green background

We say: Alcaraz to win in two sets

Even with a knee not operating anywhere near 100%, Djokovic's mental fortitude can never be called into question, although such psychological toughness did not count for much against a fully-fit and ferocious-hitting Alcaraz on the British lawns a few weeks ago.

In yet another sign that the torch is being passed down, we have full faith in Alcaraz to overwhelm the 37-year-old once more and travel home with a glittering gold around his neck.

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