Wehen Wiesbaden take on Borussia Dortmund in the first round of the DFB-Pokal on Saturday, with the visitors embarking on a new era under Marco Rose.
The hosts, meanwhile, will be hoping for a promotion challenge under Rudiger Rehm, who has been in charge of Wiesbaden since 2017.
Match preview
Indeed, after being relegated from 2.Bundesliga at the end of the 2019-20 campaign, Wiesbaden could only manage a sixth-placed finish last season, ending up a distant 15 points outside of the promotion positions.
However, Rehm has been persisted with heading into the new campaign, perhaps in part because the 42-year-old was the man who had taken the club to the heights of the second tier for the first time since 2009 in the first place.
There is little doubt, though, that the board will be expecting to finish much closer to the top three in terms of points at the very least, with two 0-0 draws to begin their league campaign not exactly the best start on that front.
In terms of the DFB-Pokal, meanwhile, Saturday's test against Dortmund is an excellent opportunity for Rehm's players to prove they can compete at the very highest level, but nothing will be expected of them in terms of the result.
© Reuters
The same does not apply to Dortmund, it would be fair to say, particularly given that they are the current holders of the competition after beating RB Leipzig 4-1 in the final in May.
Saturday's trip to Wiesbaden will be Rose's first competitive game in charge of BVB after departing Borussia Monchengladbach at the end of last season.
The 44-year-old won two Austrian titles with Red Bull Salzburg before guiding Gladbach into the Champions League knockout stages for the first time in the club's history last season.
However, results undoubtedly deteriorated in the second half of last campaign after Rose's impending departure to Dortmund was confirmed, but it is a fresh start for both him and an incredibly talented squad at his disposal.
Jadon Sancho has departed for Manchester United but Donyell Malen represents a decent replacement for the England winger, while Erling Haaland looks set to be retained for at least another year.
Goalkeeper Gregor Kobel could also solve Dortmund's biggest problem position in recent years after Roman Burki's and Marwin Hitz's struggles.
A good start against Wiesbaden on Saturday, then, could settle everyone connected to the club down a little, with defending their title in this competition undoubtedly set to be one of Rose's main aims for the season ahead.
- D
- D
Team News
© Reuters
Wiesbaden are likely to remain without Gianluca Korte and Ben Bischof for the rest of the calendar year due to serious knee injuries.
Sebastian Mrowca will also miss Saturday's cup game against Dortmund due to an ankle injury, but Wiesbaden's captain is expected to return to first-team action later this month.
Dortmund, meanwhile, have a quartet of absentees due to knee injuries themselves, with Marcel Schmelzer, Mateu Morey, Dan-Axel Zagadou and Soumaila Coulibaly all unlikely to feature anytime soon.
Marius Wolf recently tore an ankle ligament, which could harm his chances of securing a potential move away having impressed on loan at FC Koln last season.
Kobel, who was signed from Stuttgart for around £13.5m, should make his competitive debut in goal for the club having started both of Dortmund's last two friendlies.
Forward Steffen Tigges, who spent the previous two seasons with Dortmund's reserve team, has impressed with two goals in two starts in pre-season, and could be handed an opportunity alongside Haaland in attack.
Several first-team players, particularly those who were involved in Euro 2020, are yet to feature for BVB in pre-season, so they may be introduced from the substitutes' bench if at all.
Wehen Wiesbaden possible starting lineup:
Stritzel; Mockenhaupt, Carstens, Gurleyen; Fechner, Kurt, Tafertshofer, Rieble; Goppel, Lankford, Nilsson
Borussia Dortmund possible starting lineup:
Kobel; Passlack, Papadopoulos, Maloney, Schulz; Dahoud, Can; Reyna, Reus; Tigges, Haaland
We say: Wehen Wiesbaden 1-3 Borussia Dortmund
With Dortmund potentially weakened at the back, we can envisage Wiesbaden scoring against – and making life difficult for - the Bundesliga side.
However, BVB should have too much attacking quality to succumb to what would represent a huge upset should they crash out of the first round.
Brett Curtis
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 61.91%. A draw had a probability of 19.4% and a win for Wehen Wiesbaden had a probability of 18.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.24%) and 1-3 (7.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.54%), while for a Wehen Wiesbaden win it was 2-1 (5.01%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
