Watford face Everton at Vicarage Road on Saturday in the Premier League, with the home side looking to continue their resurgence under new manager Nigel Pearson.

Everton have also seen an improvement since the arrival of Carlo Ancelotti, but both sides are still well below their expectations at the start of the season.

Match preview

Watford manager Nigel Pearson pictured on January 12, 2020 © Reuters

Watford seemed all but relegated when Pearson arrived in early December, but four Premier League wins from nine matches have allowed them to move within one point of safety.

Having taken 11 points from their last six matches Watford are now looking up, but two losses in their last two games have stunted momentum.

A defeat in their last league fixture to fellow strugglers Aston Villa was particularly damaging, while they would have been embarrassed by losing to Tranmere Rovers in the FA Cup last Thursday.

The Hertfordshire club also came out on the wrong side in the reverse fixture back in August, with a second half Bernard goal sealing the 1-0 win for Everton.

Richarlison celebrates scoring for Everton on January 11, 2020 © Reuters

Both sides have made changes in personnel since then, with Troy Deeney returning for Watford and Everton switching to a 4-4-2 under Ancelotti.

While the changes have not brought about instant success, the Italian's side are now well clear of the relegation zone.

Everton's away form remains poor, with the Toffees only managing two wins and nine points on the road this season.

However, in the four league away games since Ancelotti's arrival in December they have taken five points, more than the four Silva managed between August and December.

Watford Premier League form: DWWWDL
Watford form (all competitions): WDWDLL

Everton Premier League form: WWLWDD
Everton form (all competitions): WLLWDD

Team News

Watford's Ismaila Sarr in action with Tottenham Hotspur's Giovani Lo Celso in the Premier League on January 18, 2020 © Reuters

Watford have a number of doubts for the fixture, with Danny Welbeck, Will Hughes, Tom Cleverley and Nathaniel Chalobah all fighting to be fit in time.

Hughes and Welbeck are expected to be in the squad, but Ismaila Sarr has been ruled out.

Sebastian Prodl, Kiko Femenia and Daryl Janmaat are also out, with Prodl and Janmaat unlikely to return this season.

Gylfi Sigurdsson and Richarlison are both expected to fit to face Watford, while Alex Iwobi is closing in on a return.

Jean-Philippe Gbamin and Andre Gomes are still out, although the latter has now returned to training following his horror ankle injury.

Watford possible starting lineup:
Foster; Mariappa, Dawson, Cathcart, Masina; Doucoure, Capoue, Chalobah; Pereyra, Deeney, Deulofeu

Everton possible starting lineup:
Pickford; Sidibe, Mina, Holgate, Digne; Walcott, Delph, Davies, Bernard; Calvert-Lewin, Kean

We say: Watford 1-0 Everton

Watford are unbeaten at home since Pearson's arrival and should be able to continue that run on Saturday. Everton are better under Ancelotti but remain a work in progress and go into this match as second favourite.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a win with a probability of 40.21%. A win for had a probability of 34.65% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.7%) and 0-2 (6.46%). The likeliest win was 1-0 (8.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.83%).