Wales head into their World Cup qualifier with Belarus on Sunday afternoon knowing that they require all three points to keep the pressure on second-placed Czech Republic.
However, Robert Page's side cannot afford to underestimate opponents who currently sit level on points with them in Group E.
Match preview
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Faced with two World Cup qualifiers against Belarus and Estonia that his side simply must win, Wales boss Page could have done without the array of selection issues which he has had to dealt with during the past week.
The Dragons travel to Russia, the neutral venue decided for this fixture, without almost a team full of players who would come into contention for a place in the starting lineup.
Page will stress that he still has talent at his disposal who can and should make an impact against their next two opponents, but he is undoubtedly relying more on the likes of experienced pair Ben Davies and Gareth Bale.
Having started this group with games against Belgium and Czech Republic, Page will be delighted to have accumulated three points, a tally which gives Wales an opportunity to close the gap on the latter of those nations.
That said, one slip up will leave Wales travelling to Prague next month realistically facing a must-win game, a scenario which Page and his players will be keen to avoid.
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After playing out a goalless draw in a friendly with Finland earlier this week, Wales would have hoped for a favour from Belarus when they met their group rivals a day later.
There would not have been much optimism around a surprise result given that Belarus had conceded eight goals to Belgium as recently as March.
However, Belarus impressed in restricting Czech Republic to a solitary goal, producing a performance which will only fill them with belief ahead of meeting Wales.
The White Wings have also posted home wins against Kazakhstan, Lithuania and Estonia over the past 11 months, evidence that Wales can ill-afford to take their next opponents lightly on Sunday.
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Team News
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Despite picking up a knock in the game against Finland, Bale should be fit to take his place in the Wales attack.
Chris Mepham and Davies could return to a back three, while Joe Allen and Daniel James will earn recalls after being rested in midweek.
Jonny Williams and Brennan Johnson may be given opportunities, but Harry Wilson joins the list of absentees courtesy of his red card versus Denmark at Euro 2020.
Barring any late issues, Belarus manager Georgi Kondratiev could stick with the team which impressed against Czech Republic.
Forward Artem Kontsevoy, a newcomer to the squad, is in contention for a first start after making his debut as a substitute on Thursday.
Belarus possible starting lineup:
Chernik; Begunov, Rakhmanov, Shvetsov, Sachivko, Zolotov; Antilevski, Kilmovich, Korzun, Ebong; Lisakovich
Wales possible starting lineup:
Ward; Mepham, Lawrence, Davies; Williams, Allen, Morrell, Norrington-Davies; James, Bale, Johnson
We say: Belarus 0-1 Wales
Regardless of their capitulation against Belgium, it would be naive to write off Belarus ahead of this contest. Nevertheless, while we expect a competitive fixture, Wales should have enough quality in the final third to earn a narrow win.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wales win with a probability of 38.44%. A win for Belarus had a probability of 37.35% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wales win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.43%) and 0-2 (5.66%). The likeliest Belarus win was 2-1 (8.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.12%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Wales would win this match.
