In the first of two successive meetings, Vitoria de Guimaraes welcome Moreirense to the Estadio Dom Afonso Henriques in round 11 of the Primeira Liga on Saturday.
Both sides will square off again after the international break at the Parque de Jogos Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas in round four of the Taca de Portugal on November 20.
Match preview
© Reuters
Vitoria de Guimaraes were denied a third league win on the bounce last Saturday when they were beaten 1-0 by Sporting Lisbon at the Estadio Jose Alvalade.
In an end-to-end affair, Uruguayan defender Sebastian Coates continued his stellar goalscoring form as he netted the only goal of the game shortly after the half-hour mark to hand the reigning champions their sixth win on the bounce.
This followed a thrilling 3-3 draw with Benfica in Group A of the Taca da Liga last Wednesday which saw their run of three straight wins across all competitions come to an end.
Despite the result, Pepa will be impressed with his side's position in the Primeira Liga standings as they are currently seventh, one point behind sixth-placed Portimonense, after picking up 13 points from 10 games.
© Reuters
Moreirense, on the other hand, failed to return to winning ways last time out when they were forced to settle for a 1-1 draw with Pacos de Ferreira.
In a cagey affair at the Parque de Jogos Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Lucas Silva put the visitors ahead shortly after the hour mark, but substitute Andre Luis came up trumps for the hosts once again as he netted the equaliser four minutes away from time.
Prior to that, Joao Henriques's men's three-game unbeaten streak came to an end when they fell to a slender 1-0 loss at the hands of Sporting Lisbon away from home two Saturdays ago.
With eight points from the opening 10 games, Moreirense are currently 15th on the log, just above Falcao and Maritimo, who are tied on seven points in the relegation places.
This has been in no small part owing to their struggles at the defensive end of the pitch, where Os verdes e brancos boast the division's third-poorest record with 18 goals conceded to date.
While Moreirense will be looking to move clear of the drop zone, they face the stern test of going up against an opposing side who are unbeaten in 17 of the last 19 meetings between the teams, claiming 12 wins and five draws in that time.
- D
- D
- L
- W
- W
- L
- L
- W
- W
- W
- D
- L
- D
- L
- W
- D
- L
- D
- L
- W
- D
- W
- L
- D
Team News
© Reuters
Vitoria de Guimaraes head into the game with several injury concerns to contend with down the spine of the team.
The Portuguese trio of defender Jorge Fernandes, midfielder Gui and forward Herculano Nabian are currently recuperating from injuries and will sit out the game.
Veteran defender Silvio is also out of contention for Os Vimaranenses after the 34-year-old sustained an injury in September's Taca da Liga win over Covilha.
Meanwhile, Jefferson Galego remains the only injury concern for Moreirense after the Brazilian forward came off with a knee injury in August's league curtain-raiser versus Benfica.
Luis returned to the scoresheet against Pacos de Ferreira last time out, and the 27-year-old, who now has five goals to his name this term, will be one to watch out for on Saturday.
Vitoria de Guimaraes possible starting lineup:
Varela; Sacko, Mumin, Borevkovic, Soares; Ferreira, Semedo, Andre; Edwards, Estupinan, Rochinha
Moreirense possible starting lineup:
Kewin; Conceicao, Jorge, Rosic, Conte; Pacheco, Camara; Silva, Santos, Franco; Luis
We say: Vitoria de Guimaraes 2-1 Moreirense
Moreirense have endured a shaky start to the season and this has been owing to their struggles away from home, where they are yet to pick up a win. Despite their defeat against the defending champions last time out, Vitoria de Guimaraes head into the game in resurgent form and we anticipate they will extend their dominance in this fixture and come away with all three points.
Top tip
Joshua Ojele
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 49.69%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for Moreirense had a probability of 24.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.65%) and 2-1 (9.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.34%), while for a Moreirense win it was 0-1 (8.29%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vitoria de Guimaraes would win this match.
