MX23RW : Saturday, November 16 01:58:27| >> :600:123006:123006:
[monks data]
Villarreal logo
Europa League | Quarter-Finals
Apr 15, 2021 at 8pm UK
Estadio de la Cerámica
Dinamo Zagreb

Villarreal
2 - 1
Dinamo Zagreb

Alcacer (36'), Moreno (43')
Trigueros (60')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Orsic (74')
Jakic (40')

Preview: Villarreal vs. Dinamo Zagreb - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Villarreal and Dinamo Zagreb, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Villarreal have a 1-0 lead over Dinamo Zagreb heading into the second leg of their Europa League quarter-final clash on Thursday evening.

Gerard Moreno's penalty just before half time proved the difference in last week's reverse fixture, but Dinamo have 90 minutes to respond at Estadio de la Ceramica.


Match preview

Villarreal manager Unai Emery pictured in December 2020© Reuters

Villarreal will feel that their victory in Croatia was deserved, but it may have been a different story had Mislav Orsic's early goal not be ruled out for offside in the build-up.

Gerard continued his fine form by tucking away from the penalty spot after his cross was handled by Kevin Theophile-Catherine inside the box.

The difference between the sides ultimately told over the first leg, but Unai Emery will know that his side still have a lot of work to do to see the job through.

That victory at Stadion Maksimir was Villarreal's sixth in a row in all competitions, but they were beaten 2-1 by Osasuna in La Liga on Sunday.

In the Europa League, meanwhile, the Yellow Submarine have won seven games in a row - keeping a clean sheet in six of those - and are without defeat in 11.

It goes without saying, then, that Dinamo have a huge task on their hands if they are to advance through.

Dinamo Zagreb's Mislav Orsic celebrates scoring against Tottenham Hotspur in the Europa League on March 18, 2021© Reuters

However, the Croatian champions were two goals down heading into the second leg of their last-16 match with Tottenham Hotspur and progressed 3-2 on aggregate in a dramatic tie.

Indeed, Zagreb have not lost both legs of a two-legged knockout tie in the UEFA Cup/Europa League since the 2006-07 first round versus French outfit Auxerre.

There is one statistic that works against the visitors, though - only once previously in Europa League history has a Spanish side been eliminated after winning the first leg away from home, with Real Betis being defeated by Sevilla seven years ago.

Dinamo, who are now under the management of Damir Krznar after Zoran Mamic was given a jail sentence, saw off neighbours Lokomotiva Zagreb 2-0 in the league on Sunday and will need to carry that momentum into this huge game.

Villarreal Europa League form:
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W

Villarreal form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L

Dinamo Zagreb Europa League form:
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • W

Dinamo Zagreb form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • W



Team News

Villarreal's Gerard Moreno celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates against Real Madrid on November 21, 2020© Reuters

Zagreb were dealt a blow ahead of the first leg with the news that Bruno Petkovic was not fit to start the match, but the striker came on for the final 30 minutes.

Assuming Petkovic is over his injury problem, Krznar will surely start the Croatia international in place of Mario Gavranovic.

Orsic scored a hat-trick against Tottenham in the famous turnaround last month, while Arijan Ademi is another who has caught the eye during this run to the quarters.

As for the home side, their loss to Osasuna can be put down to changes being made to the starting lineup with this second leg in mind.

Gerard only played 45 minutes, while the likes of Manu Trigueros, Samuel Chukwueze, Alfonso Pedraza, Etienne Capoue and Pau Torres also did not play a full part.

Each of those players is in contention to return to the XI here, with Vicente Iborra and Pervis Estupinan the only confirmed absentees for Villarreal.

Villarreal possible starting lineup:
Rulli; Foyth, Albiol, Torres, Pedraza; Parejo, Capoue, Trigueros; Chukwueze, Gerard, Bacca

Dinamo Zagreb possible starting lineup:
Livakovic; Ristovski, Lauritsen, Theophile-Catherine, Gvardiol; Majer, Ademi, Jakic; Ivanusec, Petkovic, Orsic


SM words green background

We say: Villarreal 1-0 Dinamo Zagreb (2-0 on aggregate)

Dinamo Zagreb know how to pull off a shock result in Europe, as Tottenham know only too well.

However, the visitors have lost each of their last six games against Spanish opposition, while Villarreal have an incredible record in Europe this term, so we are backing Emery's men to get the job done.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



ID:443005:1false2false3false:QQ:: from db desktop :LenBod:collect9861:

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 49.73%. A draw had a probability of 26.7% and a win for Dinamo Zagreb had a probability of 23.53%.

The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.98%) and 2-1 (9.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.46%), while for a Dinamo Zagreb win it was 0-1 (8.63%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Villarreal would win this match.


Previews by email

Click here to get Sports Mole's daily email of previews and predictions for every major game!


Game History

How you voted: Villarreal vs Dinamo Zagreb

Villarreal
67.2%
Draw
11.3%
Dinamo Zagreb
21.5%
186
Collect / Create New Data
Share this article now:
Manchester United's Marcus Rashford celebrates scoring against Granada in the Europa League on April 8, 2021
Read Next:
EL roundup: Man United in strong position to reach last four
>
Sports Mole Logo
Enter your email address to subscribe to Sports Mole's free daily transfer newsletter! Sent twice a day during the transfer window.
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS

League Phase

TeamPWDLPTS
1Lazio440012
2Ajax431010
3Anderlecht431010
4Frankfurt431010
5Galatasaray431010
6Spurs43019
7FCSB43019
8Lyon42117
9Rangers42117
10Olympiacos42117
11Bodo/Glimt42117
12Midtjylland42117
13Ferencvaros42026
14Man Utd41306
15Plzen41306
16AZ42026
17Besiktas42026
18Hoffenheim41215
19Roma41215
20Fenerbahce41215
21Elfsborg41124
22Braga41124
23Porto41124
24Slavia Prague41124
25Real Sociedad41124
26Malmo41033
27FC Twente40313
28Qarabag41033
29Union SG40222
30Nice40222
31RFS40222
32Ludogorets40131
33PAOK40131
34Athletic Club00000
35M. Tel Aviv40040
36Dynamo Kiev40040


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
Argentina's Lionel Messi kisses the World Cup trophy after collecting the Golden Ball award on December 18, 2022Sign up for our FREE daily preview newsletter direct to your inbox!