Two sides just about hanging onto midtable spots in the Bundesliga meet in the weekend's first match as Borussia Monchengladbach head to the Vonovia Ruhrstadion to take on VfL Bochum.
The hosts have lost three of their last four games in all competitions, whilst the visitors have produced an underwhelming campaign but won an important game last weekend.
Match preview
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A shock victory at home to league leaders Bayern Munich in early February could have provided Bochum with a serious dose of momentum.
It appeared to have the opposite effect, however, the club drawing with relegation-threatened Stuttgart, losing to RB Leipzig and being knocked out of the DFB-Pokal by Freiburg.
They did then manage a narrow win against lowly Greuther Furth, but returned to losing ways last weekend when a Sebastian Polter goal was rendered worthless by an Eintracht Frankfurt comeback that ended in Die Adler winning 2-1.
That string of results has left Thomas Reis's side in mid-table mediocrity, 12 points away from the European spots and with a nine-point cushion to the relegation zone.
The rest of the season will now likely be somewhat a case of going through the motions, but this weekend will see one of their more important games against a side two places and two points below them.
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Borussia Monchengladbach came into last weekend desperate to bounce back from a painful defeat, having thrown away a two-goal lead away at fellow strugglers Stuttgart to lose 3-2.
Fortunately for Adi Hutter and his team, they did just that, with an Alassane Plea penalty and a Matthias Ginter header earning them an important 2-0 win at home to another relegation candidate in Hertha Berlin.
Another defeat would have had a fairly dramatic impact on Gladbach's prospects this season.
Instead of having opened out a seven-point gap to Hertha in 17th, it would have been one point between the sides and just two points to Arminia Bielefeld in the relegation playoff spot.
Die Fohlen also produced a shock victory over the mighty Bayern earlier in the year, and the two giant-killers will now have to see which one of them can triumph over the other.
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Team News
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Bochum are suffering with a COVID-19 outbreak in the squad - Maxim Leitsch and Luis Hartwig are still struggling with the after effects, whilst Milos Pantovic and Robert Tesche have also now tested positive.
Danilo Soares is also struggling with injury, and Reis will need to reshuffle his defence as, whilst Cristian Gamboa has now served his suspension, he has also tested positive for COVID.
To add to their list of worries, Danny Blum also remains in the treatment room, but key man Simon Zoller is, at least, nearing a return from a long-term ACL injury.
The visitors also have a COVID-19 issue, but it is under-pressure boss Hutter who will remain away from the dugout, having also missed last weekend's game with the virus.
Nico Elvedi has now tested positive too, meaning Marvin Friedrich will likely make his comeback after recovering from the regular flu.
Jonas Hofmann is nearing a return from injury, though, and Jordan Beyer is available after his suspension.
VfL Bochum possible starting lineup:
Riemann; Bockhorn, Bella-Kotchap, Masovic, Stafylidis; Lowen, Losilla, Rexhbecaj; Antwi-Adjei, Polter, Holtmann
Borussia Monchengladbach possible starting lineup:
Sommer; Ginter, Friedrich, Beyer; Lainer, Neuhaus, Kone, Bensebaini; Plea, Embolo; Thuram
We say: VfL Bochum 0-1 Borussia Monchengladbach
With both sides dealing with a COVID outbreak - and Gladbach missing their manager - this will likely be a case of who adjusts better to the trying circumstances. This will likely be a tight match lacking in goals but we are backing the visitors to secure another important win.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a VfL Bochum win with a probability of 49.1%. A win for Borussia Monchengladbach had a probability of 28.08% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a VfL Bochum win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.71%) and 2-0 (7.06%). The likeliest Borussia Monchengladbach win was 1-2 (6.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.3%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Borussia Monchengladbach would win this match.
