Match preview

Danny Ings scores Southampton's second on January 11, 2020 © Reuters

Southampton have enjoyed an impressive revival in recent weeks under Ralph Hassenhuttl, but are still not totally guaranteed of safety at this stage.

Consecutive losses mean they are just seven points clear of 18th-placed West Ham United, while they have won just once in their last four league fixtures.

They have also picked up just 11 points at St Mary's all season, winning three times - a statistic they will be hoping to improve on this Saturday.

Southampton have also conceded more goals at home than any other side in the division, with 30 goals scored against them at St Mary's in 13 matches.

However, their away form has been outstanding, with one of their six wins on the road coming against Aston Villa just before Christmas.

Aston Villa boss Dean Smith on February 1, 2020 © Reuters

Dean Smith will have been livid after watching his side concede three sloppy goals in their loss to Spurs at Villa Park on Sunday.

A Bjorn Engels error allowed Heung-Min Son to seal the win, but Villa also showed some good attacking play and still scored twice against one of the league's best sides.

Tyrone Mings will return to the starting lineup ahead of Saturday's meeting which should help bring more security at the back, but the absence of Wesley and John McGinn has been hurting their attacking play.

Villa have picked up just eight points on the road all season, managing two wins and conceding 26 goals.

Southampton Premier League form: WWLWLL
Southampton form (all competitions): LWDLLL

Aston Villa Premier League form: WLDWLL
Aston Villa form (all competitions): LDWWLL

Team News

Southampton's Nathan Redmond celebrates after scoring against Burnley on February 2, 2019 © Reuters

Southampton will be without attacking players Nathan Redmond and Sofiane Boufal on Saturday, with Redmond unlikely to feature again until next month.

Boufal's absence is not expected to be so long-term, while loan signing Kyle Walker-Peters has also been ruled out.

Jan Bednarek could return to the starting 11 after being left on the bench last time out.

Tom Heaton and Wesley will not be seen again this season after both suffered long-term knee injuries last month.

McGinn is closing in on a return but will still not be seen for a few more weeks, while Keinan Davis and Jed Steer are also out.

Southampton possible starting lineup:
McCarthy; Valery, Stephens, Bednarek, Bertrand; Armstrong, Ward-Prowse, Hojbjerg, Djenepo; Ings, Long

Aston Villa possible starting lineup:
Reina; Konsa, Mings, Hause; Guilbert, Nakamba, Luiz, Targett; El Ghazi, Samatta, Grealish

We say: Southampton 2-2 Aston Villa

In a meeting between the two sides with the Premier League's worst defensive records, goals will be expected. Southampton have struggled at home all season and Villa are in desperate need of a results, so a draw looks most likely.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a win with a probability of 48.13%. A draw had a probability of 26.9% and a win for had a probability of 25.02%.

The most likely scoreline for a win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.48%) and 2-1 (8.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.58%), while for a win it was 0-1 (8.84%).