Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malaga win with a probability of 42.97%. A draw had a probability of 30% and a win for Lugo had a probability of 27.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malaga win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.95%) and 2-1 (7.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.22%), while for a Lugo win it was 0-1 (11.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 15.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Malaga in this match.