Sao Paulo will try to unseat the reigning Copa Libertadores champions beginning on Tuesday when they host Palmeiras in the first leg of their quarter-final tie at Cicero Pompeu de Toledo.
Tricolor Paulista took out Racing Club de Avellaneda by an aggregate score of 4-2 in the Round of 16, while their arch-rivals Palmeiras won both of their knockout stage matches versus Universidad Catolica by a 1-0 score.
Match preview
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They have had their share of struggles in the Brasileiro this year, currently just a point above the relegation zone in 16th place, but Sao Paulo have been a very different team so far in this competition.
They posted four clean sheets in the group stage, and after trailing on away goals after their opening leg in the Round of 16, they were clinical in the return leg away from home, scoring three of their five targeted efforts to win 3-1.
This will be their first appearance in the last eight of this competition since 2016 when they made the semi-finals, and they will be hungry to try and capture their second trophy of the year after winning the Campeonato Paulista back in May.
Domestically, it has been a tough campaign for Hernan Crespo and his side with only three wins in Serie A, but they are starting to show some signs of life, unbeaten in their last four matches in all competitions and advancing to the quarter-finals of the Copa do Brasil.
Palmeiras may be the highest-scoring team remaining in this tournament and in the Brasileiro, but the Sao Paulo defence have handled their attack pretty well over the past few years, maintaining four successive clean sheets against them, and going unbeaten in their last seven fixtures versus their local rivals.
Soberano have only given up one goal at home up to this point of their current Copa Libertadores campaign, and they have only lost once at Morumbi in their last five games in all competitions and have not conceded in their previous two matches.
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Through their first eight games at this tournament, all indications are that Palestra will be a tough team to knock out, winning seven of their eight games thus far and scoring 22 goals.
In the Round of 16, Abel Ferreira and his team had perhaps their toughest test so far, but with two 1-0 victories, they showed that they do not always need to score a lot of goals to win matches.
Although Palmeiras hold a 100% record away from home after four matches in this tournament, they have had to work hard to earn every one of those victories, winning each of those games by a single goal.
Revenge will be on their minds beginning on Tuesday, as Sao Paulo denied Verdao their first trophy of the year, beating them 2-0 on aggregate in the final of the Campeonato Paulista.
Unlike their quarter-final opponents, making it to this stage of the competition is very familiar territory for Palmeiras, who are in the last eight for a fourth consecutive time, and they are seeking a third trip to the semi-finals over their past four campaigns.
Last weekend they suffered their first defeat in 11 games in all competitions as they are now winless in their last two games.
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Team News
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Sao Paulo keeper Tiago Volpi has three clean sheets in this competition so far, while his backup Lucas Perri started two games in the group stage, earning a clean sheet in a 3-0 win over Sporting Cristal in their final round-robin fixture.
After failing to score in their opening six games, their leading goalscorer in league play, Emiliano Rigoni, was the hero in the previous round with two goals in their decisive second leg, including the game-winner.
Walce remains out with a cruciate ligament rupture, and Luciano has not played since suffering a muscle injury in June.
Luiz Adriano, who led Verdao in goals at this competition a year ago, sat out of both of their Round of 16 games against Universidad, but he did make an appearance this weekend as a substitute.
Rony is tied for the lead in goals at this tournament, finding the back of the net six times in the opening round, which is one more than he scored in this entire competition last year, while right-back Marcos Rocha scored his first goal of the season in the second leg of their tie versus the reigning Chilean Primera champions.
Luan Silva is the only injury concern for Ferreira heading into the first leg of this matchup on Tuesday with an abscess problem.
Sao Paulo possible starting lineup:
Volpi; Orejuela, Leo, Miranda, Reinaldo; Nestor, Liziero; Rojas, Sara, Gomes; Rigoni
Palmeiras possible starting lineup:
Weverton; Rocha, Luan, Gomez, Luis; Lima, Ze Rafael; Scarpa, Barbosa; Rony, Willian
We say: Sao Paulo 1-0 Palmeiras
It looks like Sao Paulo are starting to turn the corner, putting together four straight solid performances, and they have never lost a game to Palestra in their eight previous meetings in this competition.
Palmeiras may be the top-scoring team in Brazil, but they have struggled to find a way through the Sao Paulo defence this season, failing to score in their three matches against them in Serie A and the Campeonato Paulista, and they were held to single digits in shots on two occasions.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 43.8%. A draw had a probability of 29% and a win for Sao Paulo had a probability of 27.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.93%) and 1-2 (8.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.14%), while for a Sao Paulo win it was 1-0 (10.58%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood.
