Both battling to preserve their Serie A status, gained only a year ago, resurgent Salernitana and rock-bottom Venezia clash at Stadio Arechi on Thursday evening.
A recent run of 10 points from a possible 12 has put the hosts' fate back within their own hands, while the Arancioneroverdi have since replaced them as the league's last-placed side and - having fired their coach - look doomed to demotion.
Match preview
© Reuters
Arriving in Bergamo earlier this week, to face an ailing Atalanta side who have toiled at home, Salernitana found themselves in the unexpected position of being three points from safety; with two games in hand on 17th-placed Cagliari.
The Campanian club's 'great escape' was certainly gathering momentum, after winning three games in a row for the first time in the top flight, and they were in pole position to match the last promoted team to win four straight in Serie A - Juventus back in 2008 - when Ederson opened the scoring.
Despite hanging on for another hour, though, the Granata were pegged back in the closing stages by Mario Pasalic's equaliser and had to settle for just a point - albeit one which means that they have accrued the same tally as Atalanta in 2022 (18 from 16 league matches).
Under the management of Serie A survival specialist Davide Nicola, who has previously kept both Genoa and boyhood club Torino up against the odds, Salernitana ended an 11-game winless run last month and have since embarked on a fairytale ascent towards salvation.
After seeing off struggling Sampdoria 2-1, they won 1-0 at Udinese before a remarkable victory over top-six contenders Fiorentina at the Arechi, and another home win on Thursday would finally take them out of the bottom three at Cagliari's expense.
Promoted together after over 20 years locked outside the Italian elite, Venezia were Salernitana's rivals at the top of Serie B just 12 months ago, but now they meet in very different circumstances - with victory vital for both sides.
© Reuters
As they prepare to finally play this postponed game-in-hand, after the original fixture was cancelled in January due to COVID-19 regulations in Salerno, Venezia are reaching the point of no return in the relegation fight.
Head coach Paolo Zanetti had tested the admirable patience of the Lagunari's board with an awful run which saw his side slump below Salernitana to sit six points adrift of safety, but just before Cagliari pulled the trigger on Walter Mazzarri, the 39-year-old was relieved of his duties last weekend.
Posting nine defeats in a row for the first time in a single Serie A season, Venezia were beaten 2-1 by Juventus on Sunday, despite Mattia Aramu's equaliser 20 minutes from full time - not an ideal start for the new man in charge.
While losing in Turin brings no great shame, the Arancioneroverdi are winless since February, so primavera coach Andrea Soncin has been temporarily elevated to the top job and is tasked with producing a miraculous turnaround in the club's remaining five fixtures.
Venezia have found the net just 28 times in the league this season - fewer than half as many as they have conceded - and Aramu had not scored since December before his strike on Sunday, so Soncin's priority is quite clear.
- L
- L
- W
- W
- W
- D
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Facing a quick turnaround from Monday night's trip to Lombardy, Davide Nicola may make some changes to the side which restricted Atalanta to a draw.
After coming off the bench to score the winner against Fiorentina, on-loan Federico Bonazzoli has eight goals to his name this season, and is in contention to start alongside Serbian striker Milan Djuric up front. Lys Mousset provides another option since his return from injury, but free kick specialist Simone Verdi is the man in possession.
While Joel Obi, Mamadou Coulibaly and Ivan Radovanovic are all unavailable, Franck Ribery will hope to be involved after missing out at the Gewiss Stadium.
After a change of formation to start Andrea Soncin's spell in charge, Venezia will decide whether to select a three-man defence or revert to four at the back, with Tyronne Ebuehi still set to be missing on Thursday.
If unable to return from his hamstring injury in time, the Nigerian full-back would join goalkeepers Luca Lezzerini and Sergio Romero on the sidelines, but central midfielder Antonio Vacca returned from a muscular problem at the weekend and could start again.
Third-choice stopper Niki Maenpaa deputises as the visitors' last line of defence, while top scorer Thomas Henry should be joined by Mattia Aramu and David Okereke in a front three.
Salernitana possible starting lineup:
Sepe; Gyomber, Fazio, Dragusin; Mazzocchi, Ederson, Bohinen, L. Coulibaly, Zortea; Djuric, Bonazzoli
Venezia possible starting lineup:
Maenpaa; Caldara, Ceccaroni, Svoboda; Mateju, Ampadu, Vacca, Haps; Aramu, Henry, Okereke
We say: Salernitana 2-1 Venezia
A dramatic stoppage-time winner saw Salernitana take three points from October's reverse fixture, and it could even take a similar intervention to split two sides scrapping for every available point.
The combination of momentum, home advantage, and their visitors' lack of attacking threat should see the Granata edge over the line, and finally get their heads above water by exiting the bottom three.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Salernitana win with a probability of 47.91%. A draw had a probability of 26.3% and a win for Venezia had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Salernitana win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.13%) and 2-0 (9.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.44%), while for a Venezia win it was 0-1 (8.47%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Salernitana would win this match.
