Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 64.51%. A draw had a probability of 21.2% and a win for Famalicao had a probability of 14.29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 1-0 with a probability of 13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.49%) and 2-1 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.03%), while for a Famalicao win it was 0-1 (5.22%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.