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Premier League | Gameweek 12
Nov 20, 2021 at 3pm UK
St James' Park
Brentford logo

Newcastle
3 - 3
Brentford

Lascelles (10'), Joelinton (39'), Saint-Maximin (75')
Wilson (46'), Saint-Maximin (75')
FT(HT: 2-2)
Toney (11'), Henry (31'), Lascelles (61' og.)
Ghoddos (42'), Norgaard (83')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Premier League clash between Newcastle United and Brentford, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Now the only team without a win in the 2021-22 Premier League season, Newcastle United prepare for battle with newly-promoted Brentford at St James' Park on Saturday afternoon in the first game of the Eddie Howe era. The Magpies rescued a point in a 1-1 draw with Brighton & Hove Albion last time out, while the Bees became the first victims of Norwich City in a 2-1 defeat.

Match preview

After being frustrated in their pursuit of serial Europa League winner Unai Emery, Newcastle moved to appoint former Bournemouth coach Eddie Howe as their new leader, with the 43-year-old in attendance alongside Amanda Staveley to witness the Magpies and the Seagulls do battle on the South Coast. From Leandro Trossard's controversially-won penalty to Lewis Dunk going in goal, Brighton players certainly made the headlines on the day, but another one-pointer extended Newcastle's miserable winless run in the Premier League. Trossard tucked away his VAR-awarded spot kick with 24 minutes on the clock to put the Seagulls in the ascendancy, but Isaac Hayden was in the right place at the right time to level the scores in the second half and earn his side a hard-fought point at the Amex. However, Norwich's win over Brentford means that Newcastle are now the only team in the division yet to record a victory this season, and the 19th-placed Magpies are now level with Norwich and five clear of safety before the first game of a new era. Howe needs no reminding of the pressure he is under to deliver a positive result this weekend, with Newcastle taking just two points from their five league games at home this term and conceding a whopping 13 goals at St James' Park already - the worst such defensive record in the top flight. Having seen their fast start to life in the Premier League turn into a nightmare few weeks, Brentford now hold the unwanted honour of being basement side Norwich City's first victims of the new season following a 2-1 defeat on their own turf. On the ground where both Arsenal and Liverpool both failed to produce the goods, Norwich went into the half-time break 2-0 up thanks to goals from Mathias Normann and Teemu Pukki, and Rico Henry's second-half tap-in could not inspire a comeback for the Bees. That victory was not enough to save Daniel Farke from the axe at Norwich, but Thomas Frank remains in the Brentford hotseat and will desperately seek to reverse his side's fortunes this weekend, with the Bees suddenly slipping to 14th in the table. Brentford have suffered four defeats on the bounce in the Premier League, but only one of those losses has come on the road, and not since their League Two days in the 2007-08 season have they sunk to five consecutive losses in domestic action. However, Burnley and Norwich were both without a win in the new season before coming up trumps against Brentford, so Newcastle fans have every right to dream of a perfect start to life under Howe this weekend. Newcastle prevailed in both of their encounters with Brentford during the 2016-17 Championship season, but the Bees knocked the Magpies out of the EFL Cup in the quarter-finals last term thanks to Josh Dasilva's winner.
Newcastle United Premier League form:
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • D
Brentford Premier League form:
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L

Team News

Newcastle winger Ryan Fraser - a former favourite of Howe at Bournemouth - pulled out of the Scotland squad with a calf problem but should be in contention to feature here. Fraser's expected return will leave Paul Dummett as Newcastle's only absentee for the opening game of Howe's reign, and the 43-year-old's appointment could see the Magpies make an immediate switch to a four-man rearguard. Howe - who will be absent after contracting COVID-19 - developed an affinity for an old-school 4-4-2 during his time with the Cherries, and such a formation would certainly see Allan Saint-Maximin and Callum Wilson act as the focal points in attack. As for Brentford, Zanka lasted just 12 minutes of the defeat to Norwich before coming off with a muscle injury and will be assessed, while last season's match-winner Dasilva is out with his long-term hip issue. With Kristoffer Ajer (hamstring) facing a few more weeks on the sidelines, Charlie Goode is set to make his first Premier League start in front of Alvaro Fernandez, deputising for the injured David Raya. Mads Sorensen also occupies a spot in the treatment room alongside Yoane Wissa - who does have a slim chance of returning alongside Shandon Baptiste - while Mathias Jensen has recovered from a bout of coronavirus. Newcastle United possible starting lineup: Dubravka; Manquillo, Clark, Lascelles, Ritchie; Almiron, Hayden, Shelvey, Fraser; Wilson, Saint-Maximin Brentford possible starting lineup: Fernandez; Goode, Pinnock, Jansson; Canos, Janelt, Norgaard, Onyeka, Henry; Toney, Mbeumo

We said: Newcastle United 2-1 Brentford

Even with Howe absent from the touchline, the new manager bounce should be in full swing for Newcastle in front of a vibrant St James' Park crowd, and they could hardly have been handed a friendlier fixture against a Brentford side devoid of confidence and depleted by injuries. The Bees have just not been able to find the formula for success against winless sides recently, and we expect the Magpies to finally get off the mark for the season in a dream start for Howe.
Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brentford win with a probability of 55%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Newcastle United had a probability of 20.37%.

The most likely scoreline for a Brentford win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.72%) and 1-2 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.64%), while for a Newcastle United win it was 1-0 (7.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood.

Result
Newcastle UnitedDrawBrentford
20.37%24.63%55%
Both teams to score 47.4%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
46.24%53.76%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
24.76%75.24%
Newcastle United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
58.87%41.13%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
22.33%77.68%
Brentford Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.52%19.48%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.66%51.34%
Score Analysis
    Newcastle United 20.37%
    Brentford 54.99%
    Draw 24.63%
Newcastle UnitedDrawBrentford
1-0 @ 7.12%
2-1 @ 5.17%
2-0 @ 3.16%
3-1 @ 1.53%
3-2 @ 1.25%
3-0 @ 0.94%
Other @ 1.19%
Total : 20.37%
1-1 @ 11.64%
0-0 @ 8.01%
2-2 @ 4.23%
Other @ 0.75%
Total : 24.63%
0-1 @ 13.1%
0-2 @ 10.72%
1-2 @ 9.52%
0-3 @ 5.85%
1-3 @ 5.19%
0-4 @ 2.39%
2-3 @ 2.31%
1-4 @ 2.12%
2-4 @ 0.94%
Other @ 2.84%
Total : 54.99%

How you voted: Newcastle vs Brentford

Newcastle United
62.1%
Draw
17.6%
Brentford
20.3%
227
Head to Head
Dec 22, 2020 5.30pm
Quarter-Finals
Brentford
1-0
Newcastle
Dasilva (66')

Shelvey (70')
Jan 14, 2017 3pm
Brentford
1-2
Newcastle
Vibe (52')
Vibe (81')
Gayle (20'), Murphy (79')
Dummett (31')
Oct 15, 2016 3pm
Newcastle
3-1
Brentford
Clark (11'), Gayle (16', 49')
Gouffran (26'), Colback (38'), Atsu (42')
Hogan (52')
Dean (24'), Sawyers (72'), Woods (73')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Liverpool119112161528
2Manchester CityMan City117222213923
3Chelsea115422113819
4Arsenal115421812619
5Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest115421510519
6Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton115421915419
7Fulham115331613318
8Newcastle UnitedNewcastle115331311218
9Aston Villa115331717018
10Tottenham HotspurSpurs1151523131016
11Brentford115152222016
12Bournemouth114341515015
13Manchester UnitedMan Utd114341212015
14West Ham UnitedWest Ham113351319-612
15Leicester CityLeicester112451421-710
16Everton112451017-710
17Ipswich TownIpswich111551222-108
18Crystal Palace11146815-77
19Wolverhampton WanderersWolves111371627-116
20Southampton11119721-144


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