Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 73.67%. A draw had a probability of 15.5% and a win for Southampton had a probability of 10.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.21%) and 3-0 (8.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.1%), while for a Southampton win it was 1-2 (3.2%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.