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Premier League 2 - Div 2
Oct 29, 2022 at 12.30pm UK
 

Derby U21s
0 - 2
Aston Villa U21s

FT(HT: 0-1)
Afoka (11'), Firth (63')
Smith (74')
Coverage of the Premier League 2 - Div 2 clash between Derby County Under-21s and Aston Villa Under-21s.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Derby U21s 0-1 Forest U21s
Monday, October 10 at 7pm in Premier League 2 - Div 2
Last Game: Aston Villa U21s 1-1 Forest U21s
Friday, October 21 at 7pm in Premier League 2 - Div 2

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa Under-21s win with a probability of 60.33%. A win for Derby County Under-21s had a probability of 21.03% and a draw had a probability of 18.6%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa Under-21s win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (7.28%) and 0-2 (6.25%). The likeliest Derby County Under-21s win was 2-1 (5.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.21%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Aston Villa Under-21s would win this match.

Result
Derby County Under-21sDrawAston Villa Under-21s
21.03% (-0.0030000000000001 -0) 18.64% (-0.013999999999999 -0.01) 60.33% (0.015999999999998 0.02)
Both teams to score 69.35% (0.055000000000007 0.06)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
74.38% (0.070999999999998 0.07)25.62% (-0.073 -0.07)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
54.28% (0.092999999999996 0.09)45.72% (-0.094000000000001 -0.09)
Derby County Under-21s Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.82% (0.040000000000006 0.04)24.18% (-0.042999999999999 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.5% (0.056999999999995 0.06)58.5% (-0.060000000000002 -0.06)
Aston Villa Under-21s Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
91.46% (0.024000000000001 0.02)8.54% (-0.0251 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
70.45% (0.061000000000007 0.06)29.55% (-0.062999999999999 -0.06)
Score Analysis
    Derby County Under-21s 21.03%
    Aston Villa Under-21s 60.33%
    Draw 18.64%
Derby County Under-21sDrawAston Villa Under-21s
2-1 @ 5.12% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
3-2 @ 2.98% (0.004 0)
1-0 @ 2.93% (-0.01 -0.01)
3-1 @ 2.42%
2-0 @ 2.08% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
4-2 @ 1.06% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-0 @ 0.99% (-0.001 -0)
Other @ 3.45%
Total : 21.03%
1-1 @ 7.21% (-0.016 -0.02)
2-2 @ 6.3% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-3 @ 2.45% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
0-0 @ 2.07% (-0.01 -0.01)
Other @ 0.62%
Total : 18.64%
1-2 @ 8.87% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
1-3 @ 7.28% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-2 @ 6.25% (-0.014 -0.01)
2-3 @ 5.17% (0.0070000000000006 0.01)
0-3 @ 5.13% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
0-1 @ 5.08% (-0.018 -0.02)
1-4 @ 4.48% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
2-4 @ 3.18% (0.008 0.01)
0-4 @ 3.15% (0.00099999999999989 0)
1-5 @ 2.2% (0.0049999999999999 0)
2-5 @ 1.56% (0.0049999999999999 0)
0-5 @ 1.55% (0.002 0)
3-4 @ 1.5% (0.006 0.01)
1-6 @ 0.9% (0.003 0)
Other @ 4.03%
Total : 60.33%

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