Porto play host to SC Farense on Monday evening knowing that only victory will do if they wish to prevent Sporting Lisbon from winning the Primeira Liga title.

Sitting three points adrift of safety with three matches remaining, Farense can ill-afford a 16th defeat of the season at Estadio do Dragao.

Match preview

Porto coach Sergio Conceicao pictured on April 7, 2021 © Reuters

When Sporting started to drop points after the international break, Porto sensed that there was a window of opportunity to pull off one of the more unlikely title triumphs in their recent history.

However, at a time when the long-term leaders have posted three successive wins, Sergio Conceicao has witnessed his side drop points away at Moreirense and Benfica.

While Porto came from behind to earn a share of the spoils in both fixtures, draws were not enough, and Sporting are now one victory away from lifting the top-flight crown.

Their rivals do not play until a day later, leaving Porto to try to keep the pressure on with a convincing victory on Monday evening.

Top goalscorer Mehdi Taremi has not scored a goal from open play in four appearances with his last two strikes coming from the penalty spot.

At a time when Porto still hold a 25-match unbeaten streak in Primeira Liga, 17th-placed Farense have gone four fixtures without defeat.

Nevertheless, three draws in succession have left Jorge Costa's team in a position where they are still regarded as outsiders to avoid the drop.

Late goals have denied Farense against each of Portimonense and Vitoria de Guimaraes, costing them four points and a position outside of the bottom three.

If his side can avoid defeat at Estadio do Dragao, Costa can have no complaints, and confidence can be taken from only losing 1-0 in the reverse fixture.

Pedro Henrique took his tally for the season to five with a double against Guimaraes, but Farense continue to rely on Scottish playmaker Ryan Gauld who now has 15 goal contributions in 30 outings.

Porto Primeira Liga form:

Porto form (all competitions):

SC Farense Primeira Liga form:

Team News

FC Porto's Marko Grujic in action with Chelsea's Jorginho in the Champions League on April 7, 2021 © Reuters

Porto will be without midfielder Sergio Oliveira who picked up his fifth yellow card of the season in the last game.

Liverpool loanee Marko Grujic is in contention for a recall as his replacement, but Toni Martinez is unlikely to get the nod ahead of Taremi or Moussa Marega.

Winger Jesus Corona is expected to miss the rest of the season with the injury that he sustained against Famalico at the end of last month.

Farense are likely to make at least one change with Cassio Scheid in line to replace Andre Pinto in defence.

Barring any late fitness issues, the remainder of the team could stay the same with Costa sticking to his defensive-minded 4-3-3 formation.

Porto possible starting lineup:
Marchesin; Manafa, Mbemba, Pepe, Sanusi; Otavio, Grujic, Uribe, Diaz; Marega, Taremi

SC Farense possible starting lineup:
Beto; Tavares, Martins, Scheid, Felipe; Lucca, Oudrhiri, Gauld; Aouacheria, Henrique, Lica

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We say: Porto 3-1 SC Farense

Despite the scenario in front of them, do not expect Porto to approach this game any differently. While the home side will be wary of complacency, they should have few issues with disposing of one of the minnows of the division.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 65.77%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for SC Farense had a probability of 13.24%.

The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.13%) and 2-1 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.87%), while for a SC Farense win it was 0-1 (5.14%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.