The Portland Timbers have an opportunity to extend their regular-season unbeaten run at Providence Park to six games when they host the Los Angeles Galaxy on Sunday in Major League Soccer action.
Both teams have six points heading into this encounter, as a late penalty rescued the Timbers last weekend in a 1-1 draw versus Orlando City, while the Galaxy dropped a 1-0 decision to those same Lions in their previous fixture.
Match preview
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The first five games of 2022 for Portland have been a virtual carbon copy from their opening five the previous season, with the same amount of points and nearly the same number of goals scored and conceded.
After being dragged all over the field against FC Dallas in a 4-1 defeat, Giovanni Savarese saw his players respond well under some problematic circumstances a week ago, fighting back from a goal behind to pick up a point, despite being a man down.
Their passing, creativity and ball movements all over the field improved tremendously last weekend, though they have developed a habit of trailing a handful of games so far, falling behind four times already this year in three different contests.
Savarese is calling on his team to develop a better sense of urgency while improving their ability to get in behind opposing defences, ingredients that have been missing at times in 2022.
They may not been getting into the dangerous areas as much as their coach would like, but they have still found the back of the net consistently, with goals in 12-straight MLS encounters, dating back to October 27, 2021.
Making more intelligent passes on the counter will be a point of emphasis for the reigning Western Conference champions, who have only dropped one of their last 13 home games including the playoffs after 90 minutes.
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The Galaxy did almost everything but finish in their previous encounter, as they have lost two in a row after winning their opening two matches.
LA struggled to manage their opponents' transitional play in their last outing, as manager Greg Vanney noted that his defence were a little overzealous, which cost them a game that they seemed to be in control of, with 63% possession.
This year, the Galaxy have not been connecting on their passes in the final third nearly enough and thus have not been able to get into a lot of dangerous scoring areas, with a goal or fewer in three of their four encounters to date.
After four matches, they have only notched one goal in the opening half, and if not for some late tallies in their first two games, this team could be in a much worse position in the Western Conference.
Like many MLS sides, the Galaxy have struggled at Providence Park recently, particularly on the defensive side, conceding 14 goals in their previous four visits to the Pacific Northwest.
When this team find themselves seeking an equaliser late in a match, they tend to be a little impatient while mistiming some of their final passes, which has caused them to squander some good opportunities to pick up points.
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Team News
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Cristhian Paredes scored the equaliser for the Timbers last Sunday, his first of the year, while Diego Chara led the team with 13 possessions won and Claudio Bravo was first in touches (102), duels won (seven), tackles won (six) and interceptions (four).
Tega Ikoba is out with an abdominal issue, Felipe Mora is still recovering from his knee surgery and Marvin Loria is questionable with an ankle injury.
Josecarlos Van Rankin will not be available after receiving a pair of cautions in their previous encounter, while Pablo Bonilla made his season debut last Sunday.
Bill Tuiloma had a brace for New Zealand to help the Kiwis win the Oceania World Cup Qualifying tournament, defeating the Solomon Islands 5-0 earlier this week.
It should come as no surprise that Chicharito leads the Galaxy in goals this year, tallying twice to this point, while Douglas Costa picked up his first strike in MLS in their 3-2 defeat to the Seattle Sounders.
Adam Saldana has not recovered from his left ankle sprain, while Jorge Villafana is out because of a left knee injury.
Efrain Alvarez made his 60th career MLS appearance for LA in their last match, while Julian Araujo and Victor Vazquez each created three scoring opportunities.
Mark Delgado finished that game with 75 passes attempted and a 97% pass accuracy, and Raheem Edwards created four chances while winning eight possessions.
Portland Timbers possible starting lineup:
Ivacic; Bonilla, McGraw, Zuparic, Bravo; Blanco, Paredes, D. Chara, Asprilla; Y. Chara; Niezgoda
Los Angeles Galaxy possible starting lineup:
Bond; Araujo, Coulibaly, DePuy, Edwards; Costa, Raveloson, Delgado, Vazquez, Grandsir; Chicharito
We say: Portland Timbers 2-1 Los Angeles Galaxy
The Galaxy have improved defensively from a year ago, but they still make their share of mental errors while often over anticipating critical moments.
Slowly but surely, it seems as though the Timbers are starting to find their footing, and their vast experience should serve them well as they aim to navigate what has been an inconsistent beginning to this campaign.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portland Timbers win with a probability of 49.84%. A win for Los Angeles Galaxy had a probability of 26.05% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portland Timbers win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.59%) and 2-0 (8.32%). The likeliest Los Angeles Galaxy win was 0-1 (6.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.
