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Parma logo
Serie A | Gameweek 28
Mar 19, 2021 at 7.45pm UK
Stadio Ennio Tardini
Genoa logo

Parma
1 - 2
Genoa

Pelle (16')
Bani (19'), Pezzella (57'), Pelle (72'), Brugman (78'), Kucka (90+5')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Scamacca (50', 69')
Ballardini (58'), Radovanovic (73'), Biraschi (84')

Preview: Parma vs. Genoa - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Friday's Serie A clash between Parma and Genoa, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

A crucial game takes place at the bottom of the Serie A table on Friday night, as Parma welcome Genoa to the Stadio Ennio Tardini.

The hosts will be looking for a second consecutive league victory to move them closer to safety, while Genoa will be hoping to break a six-game winless run which has seen them drop to just six points above the relegation zone.


Match preview

Parma manager Roberto D'Aversa pictured in June 2020© Reuters

Parma recorded a crucial victory last time out, picking up a surprise 2-0 win over sixth-placed Roma thanks to goals from Valentin Mihaila and Hernani.

That put an end to a run of 17 league games without a victory for Roberto D'Aversa's side, which saw them drop into the relegation zone.

However, they now sit just four points adrift of safety, with a win in this game moving them to within a point of 17th-placed Torino.

Despite their lowly league position, D'Aversa's men have shown signs of improvement recently, having lost just one of their last five Serie A outings.

Before the victory over Roma, the Ducali looked set to record an impressive away victory over Fiorentina, when Mihaila scored late to put his side 3-2 ahead after they trailed 2-0.

However, they suffered late heartbreak as centre-back Simone Iacoponi turned the ball into his own net in the fourth minute of added time, with the game finishing 3-3.

D'Aversa will be hoping that his side can continue that steady improvement in this game, as they look to defy the odds and claw themselves closer to safety.

That will be no easy task though, as they host a Genoa side who will be desperate for a win of their own in their bid to remain comfortably ahead of the bottom three.

The visitors come into this game without a win in their last six league games, a run which has seen them drop uncomfortably close to the drop zone.

Davide Ballardini's men picked up a point last time out with a 1-1 draw away at Udinese, as Goran Pandev's early opener was cancelled out by a Rodrigo De Paul penalty for the hosts.

Il Grifone now sit just six points ahead of Cagliari in the relegation zone, while a defeat for Ballardini's side on Friday would see the gap between themselves and Parma reduced to just three points.

As a result, they will be searching for a much-needed win on the road, as they look to increase their distance from the bottom three.

Parma Serie A form:
  • L
  • D
  • D
  • L
  • D
  • W

Genoa Serie A form:
  • D
  • D
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • D


Team News

Davide Ballardini, now in charge of Genoa, pictured in January 2018© Reuters

Though they have recently welcomed several players back to action, including Joshua Zirkzee and Andrea Conti, Parma's injury list remains very worrying.

Gervinho is expected to remain out with a hamstring injury, joining fellow attackers Andreas Cornelius and Roberto Inglese on the sidelines.

It is not just their front line which has been blighted with injuries either, with defenders Simone Iacoponi, Riccardo Gagliolo and Lautaro Valenti all remaining out of contention.

However, they will be boosted by the return of top scorer Juraj Kucka, who served a suspension last time out for picking up five yellow cards this campaign.

In contrast to Parma, Genoa have managed to keep a fairly fit squad at this stage of the campaign, with Luca Pellegrini remaining the only long-term injury concern.

Ballardini's defence will be strengthened by the return of Andrea Masiello, who served a one-match suspension last time out.

They will also be boosted by the return of their top scorer Mattia Destro, who also served a suspension last time out having netted nine Serie A goals so far this season.

He will be joined in attack by veteran forward Goran Pandev, who netted his fourth goal of the campaign in the recent draw with Udinese.

Parma possible starting lineup:
Sepe; Conti, Osorio, Bani, Pezzella; Hernani, Brugman, Kurtic, Kucka; Pelle, Mihaila

Genoa possible starting lineup:
Perin; Masiello, Radovanovic, Criscito; Zappacosta, Strootman, Badelj, Zajc, Czyborra; Pandev, Destro


SM words green background

We say: Parma 2-1 Genoa

With both sides looking for a crucial win to help their survival bid, this should be a very tight affair.

Parma's upturn in form could be a major factor in the outcome of this game, and we would not look past their improvement continuing with another win on Friday.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or draw in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Draw:data



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Written by
Sam Varley

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Parma win with a probability of 42.61%. A win for Genoa had a probability of 29.59% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Parma win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.47%) and 2-0 (8.19%). The likeliest Genoa win was 0-1 (10.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Parma vs Genoa

Parma
72.7%
Draw
16.0%
Genoa
11.3%
150
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