Oxford United will welcome MK Dons to the Kassam Stadium on Tuesday for a League One contest that could have repercussions for both the promotion race and the quest for a playoff spot.
The U's are four points adrift of the playoffs, while the visitors are in third position, with an inferior goal difference keeping them outside the top two.
Match preview
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The hosts reside in eighth position, and with just three games left to play, they need to make up a four-point gap if they are to move into the playoff places.
After 38 matches, Oxford sat in a more promising position in fourth spot, but a four-game winless run - which included three straight defeats - resulted in Karl Robinson's side dropping down the table.
They did, however, return to winning ways on Friday after they survived a late fightback from Fleetwood Town to win 3-2 at the Highbury Stadium.
Robinson's charges raced into a three-goal lead within 16 minutes of kickoff, with Nathan Holland, Cameron Brannagan and Billy Bodin all finding the net, and though Fleetwood scored two goals through Ellis Harrison and Cian Hayes, Oxford remained resolute to close out the win.
The U's face tough opposition in the form of MK Dons and Rotherham United in their next two games, and they may need to pick up maximum points from those contests if they are to enter their final fixture against Doncaster Rovers with the playoffs still a realistic possibility.
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The visitors, meanwhile, are currently level on points with Rotherham who sit in second place, although MK Dons have played a game more than their promotion rivals.
Despite their lofty position in the League One table, Liam Manning will have to lift his players for Tuesday's encounter after a 3-2 defeat to Sheffield Wednesday on Saturday ended a 15-game unbeaten run.
Sheffield Wednesday surged into a three-goal lead inside half-hour, with Saido Berahino, Lee Gregory and Barry Bannan all scoring before Troy Parrott pulled a goal back for the Dons in the 41st minute.
Scott Twine reduced the deficit to one in the sixth minute of stoppage time, but it was too little too late for MK Dons, who slumped to just their second league defeat of 2022.
Although promotion may be out of their hands, Tuesday's visitors know that if they can finish the season with three consecutive victories then there is every chance they can creep into the automatic promotion places.
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Team News
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Alex Gorrin, Sam Baldock, Marcus Browne and Jamie Hanson are still unavailable for the hosts due to their respective injury issues.
Despite nearly giving up a three-goal lead against Fleetwood, Robinson is expected to keep changes to a minimum, although he could bring fresh legs into the forward line in the form of Gavin Whyte.
Meanwhile, Elliot Moore is likely to start a third consecutive game following his return from injury, and he is expected to partner Luke McNally in the centre of defence.
As for the visitors, they could be without the services of Mo Eisa, who was forced off against Sheffield Wednesday due to an injury issue.
If Eisa does miss out, then Connor Wickham could come into a front three that will also feature Parrott and Twine.
In the defensive third, Manning is expected to continue with a back three of Warren O'Hora, Harry Darling and Dean Lewington.
Oxford United possible starting lineup:
Stevens; Long, McNally, Moore, Brown; Bodin, Kane, Brannagan; Whyte, Holland, Taylor
MK Dons possible starting lineup:
Cumming; O'Hora, Darling, Lewington; Kesler, McEachran, Coventry, Harvie; Twine, Parrott, Wickham
We say: Oxford United 1-2 MK Dons
Both teams need a victory to achieve their respective goals, but we think that the Dons will take the spoils on Tuesday with the visitors currently unbeaten in their last 10 away games, while eight of those contests have resulted in a MK Dons victory.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Oxford United win with a probability of 38.53%. A win for MK Dons had a probability of 36.51% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Oxford United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.31%) and 2-0 (6.04%). The likeliest MK Dons win was 1-2 (8.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.7%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Oxford United would win this match.
