Two Ligue 1 sides, who are currently in the hunt for a place in Europe, will face each other on Wednesday when Nice host Lens from Allianz Riviera.
Les Aiglons are winless and goalless in three consecutive French league matches played on their home soil, while the side located in Pas-de-Calais in Northern France are a point behind Montpellier for a spot in the Europa Conference League next season.
Match preview
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As we hit the midway point of this campaign, Nice continue to sit in a comfortable position near the top of the standings, currently in fourth, only two points back of Olympique de Marseille for second and a guaranteed spot in the Champions League group stage in 2022-23.
Manager Christophe Galtier has them playing with a solid structure and identity, particularly defensively where they have only conceded 16 goals after 18 matches played, tied for the second-fewest to this point of the season.
They began the campaign unbeaten in their opening five league games, losing only once in their first eight encounters, and while they have not put together an extended streak quite like that in recent memory, Nice have not won or lost consecutive matches since beating Saint-Etienne and Brest at the end of September and beginning of October.
On Sunday, they advanced beyond the Round of 64 of the French Cup, scoring in the second half to defeat third-tier side SO Cholet 1-0.
Despite having between 61 to 70% possession in their previous three home games, they have not shown enough quality in the final third over that stretch.
Should they lose at home again on Wednesday, the man who led Lille to the Ligue 1 title last season would become the first manager in the history of the club to suffer four straight league defeats at Allianz Riviera since 1997 when then-coach Sylvester Takac, saw his team drop four consecutive encounters in between March and April of that year.
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A second-half collapse in their previous Ligue 1 match versus Nantes has Franck Haise and his side searching for answers, having failed to win five straight league contests.
That defeat was the first time that this club had lost a game when going up by two goals in a domestic encounter since September 1985.
While Lens have rarely squandered a two-goal lead, they have dropped their share of points from winning positions in this campaign, holding an advantage on five separate occasions in their previous four games played, but only picking up three points over that span.
On Sunday, however, their defence held strong against Ligue 2 opponents Stade Poitevin, scoring in the 36th minute to win 1-0.
When you watch this team play, you can expect to see plenty of goals, with a total of 58 scored between themselves and their opponents in their opening 18 league matches (32 for and 26 against), with only Bordeaux producing more goals in their games this season (65).
In 2020-21, they missed out on a spot in the Europa Conference League qualifiers by a single point, so being in their current position is not an unfamiliar feeling for them, but they will hope that they are able to qualify for that competition this time around.
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Team News
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On Sunday, Nice striker Andy Delort scored the winner in their Coupe de France victory, while Kasper Dolberg had a goal and an assist in their last league triumph over Rennes, with Youcef Atal notching the winning strike.
Robson Bambu, their 24-year-old Brazilian centre-back underwent ankle surgery last month and is not expected to return to the field until February.
In their match with Rennes, Galtier made several changes to the starting lineup, including Dante replacing Flavius Daniliuc in defence, Atal started at fullback rather than Melvin Bard, while Hicham Boudaoui took the place of Calvin Stengs in midfield and Amine Gouiri was inserted in attack instead of Delort.
Cameroon international Ignatius Ganago scored the only goal this past weekend for Lens, with Wuilker Farinez collecting a clean sheet in their 1-0 win at the Coupe de France.
David Costa had a goal and an assist in their defeat to Nantes, his first of the campaign, while their leading scorer Seko Fofana has not tallied since their draw with league leaders PSG in early December and Jonathan Clauss is tied for second in the league in assists with Dimitri Payet (seven), just one back of Kylian Mbappe for the lead.
Mamadou Camara has an unknown problem that has kept him out of the lineup for much of this campaign, Deiver Machado is out with a meniscal injury, Wesley Said is nursing a muscle issue and Gael Kakuta remains sidelined with a calf strain.
Nice possible starting lineup:
Benitez; Lotomba, Daniliuc, Todibo, Atal; Kluivert, Lemina, Rosario, Stengs; Dolberg, Delort
Lens possible starting lineup:
Leca; Medina, Danso, Gradit; Clauss, Fofana, Doucoure, Frankowski; Costa, Sotoca; Kalimuendo
We say: Nice 2-1 Lens
Nice have had difficulty winning at home, however, they have won their last three fixtures versus Lens in Ligue 1, and they have been more consistent than their opponents, who seem to struggle in close games, conceding a goal beyond the 90th minute in their last two league fixtures.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nice win with a probability of 37.74%. A win for Lens had a probability of 35.12% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nice win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.15%) and 2-0 (6.73%). The likeliest Lens win was 0-1 (10.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.87%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Nice in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Nice.
