The New England Revolution begin their 2022 home campaign in Major League Soccer on Saturday when they host Dallas at Gillette Stadium in Greater Boston.
Both teams picked up a point in their opening fixture, with The Revs playing to a 2-2 draw versus the Portland Timbers, while the side from Texas failed to hold onto an early advantage, and drew Toronto 1-1.
Match preview
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We are only one game into the new MLS campaign, but already we are seeing similarities to the New England team, which we saw a year ago.
In their record-setting 2021 regular season, where they captured the first Supporters' Shield in franchise history, The Revs won games by playing aggressively and scoring a lot, so seeing four goals scored in their opener should come as no surprise.
Even without the presence of speedy winger Tajon Buchanan, who signed with defending Belgian champions Club Brugge, there is still plenty of speed and quality on this side, as evidenced by their up-tempo play last weekend.
They fired seven shots on target against the reigning Western Conference champions and, if not for a spectacular bicycle kick goal from Yimmi Chara, they likely would have come away with all three points.
Bruce Arena remains one win shy of the league record for most regular-season victories, as the former two-time American national team coach is tied with Sigi Schmid at 240.
All over the field, The Revolution are just as loaded with talent as they were in 2021, with two of the deadliest strikers in the league (Gustavo Bou and Adam Buksa), who are masters of getting in behind opposing defenders, not to mention the fact that New England possess a midfielder in Carles Gil, who is perhaps the league's best passer, with incredible vision.
They have shown to be a highly effective attacking squad who have the players to win in a wide-open approach, although that style also allows other teams to catch them in transition as they have conceded multiple goals in 15 encounters since the start of last year, including the playoffs and their opening fixture of 2022.
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It was an entertaining opening weekend in the heart of Big D, as Nico Estevez and The Toros came away with a point in their home opener.
When the club sold youngster Ricardo Pepi, many wondered who would step up and provide some offence heading into this campaign, and early on, the newcomers in attack showed plenty of quality.
In 2021 Dallas were a dismal defensive unit that allowed far too many scoring chances, conceding the most goals in the Western Conference (56).
The fact that Toronto only had one shot on target has to be a positive sign in the early stages of this season, although conceding on that one effort must have also been discouraging.
Seeing as they took the lead in the opening 10 minutes on Saturday, Estevez will be disappointed that his side could not keep The Reds down, as Dallas created plenty of opportunities to come away victorious.
Following the game, Estevez noted that his midfield three adjusted well to what Toronto were doing in the second half, particularly Brandon Servania, who combined effectively with Edwin Cerrillo in the final 45 minutes to handle Jonathan Osorio, who caught them out of position at times in the opening half.
After one match, they seemed to handle the press a lot better than we saw in 2021, as the players found half spaces, dispossessing their opponents and transitioning quickly into the attack.
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Team News
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Sebastian Lletget tallied a goal in his first match for The Revs, while Omar Gonzalez, Jozy Altidore and Earl Edwards Jr. also made their debuts.
The other New England goal came courtesy of Brandon Bye off a nice pass from Gil, who had a game-high six chances created, while Andrew Farrell had a team-high eight clearances and DeJuan Jones picked up his 70th cap for the club, collecting his seventh career assist with the team as well.
Brad Knighton is questionable with a head injury, while Matt Turner missed the opener with an undisclosed foot issue, and it remains unclear if the American keeper, who will join Arsenal in July, will be ready to go this weekend.
Paul Arriola began his Dallas career well, recording his 17th career MLS assist on the opening goal from Jader Obrian, who tallied his 10th league goal overall.
Marco Farfan, Nanu, Tsiki Ntsabeleng and Maarten Paes each played in their first game for The Toros on Saturday, with Paes conceding the only effort on target that he faced.
Nicky Hernandez is out with a bilateral leg fasciotomy, Franco Jara will miss this encounter because of a right knee sprain, Szabolcs Schon has a right calf strain and Jimmy Maurer is questionable due to a left foot contusion.
New England Revolution possible starting lineup:
Edwards Jr.; Jones, DeLaGarza, Farrell, Bye; Boateng, Polster, Lletget; Gil; Bou, Buksa
Dallas possible starting lineup:
Paes; Nanu, Hedges, Martinez, Farfan; Redzic, Cerrillo, Pomykal; Arriola, Ferreira, Obrian
We say: New England Revolution 3-1 Dallas
The Revs were the highest-scoring team in the league a season ago, and after one match in 2022, they look to be just as clinical and hard to contain.
Dallas' opening day performance was pretty solid, but that backline will have their hands full containing a potent New England attack, who come at you in waves with a playmaker that can pick out his forwards superbly, so expect Paes to be a busy man in goal.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New England Revolution win with a probability of 64.52%. A draw had a probability of 19.2% and a win for Dallas had a probability of 16.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a New England Revolution win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.5%) and 1-0 (8.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.79%), while for a Dallas win it was 1-2 (4.55%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New England Revolution would win this match.
