Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Notts County win with a probability of 65.69%. A draw had a probability of 18.3% and a win for Scunthorpe United had a probability of 16.02%.
The most likely scoreline for a Notts County win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.79%) and 1-3 (7.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.12%), while for a Scunthorpe United win it was 2-1 (4.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Notts County would win this match.
Result | ||
Scunthorpe United | Draw | Notts County |
16.02% ( 0.06) | 18.29% ( 0.53) | 65.69% ( -0.58) |
Both teams to score 60.3% ( -1.99) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
67.25% ( -2.55) | 32.75% ( 2.55) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
45.57% ( -3) | 54.43% ( 3.01) |
Scunthorpe United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.51% ( -1.58) | 33.48% ( 1.59) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.88% ( -1.77) | 70.12% ( 1.77) |
Notts County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
90.65% ( -0.81) | 9.34% ( 0.82) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
68.5% ( -1.97) | 31.49% ( 1.98) |
Score Analysis |
Scunthorpe United | Draw | Notts County |
2-1 @ 4.44% ( 0.07) 1-0 @ 3.42% ( 0.32) 3-2 @ 1.92% ( -0.13) 2-0 @ 1.87% ( 0.1) 3-1 @ 1.62% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.74% Total : 16.02% | 1-1 @ 8.12% ( 0.46) 2-2 @ 5.26% ( -0.12) 0-0 @ 3.13% ( 0.41) 3-3 @ 1.52% ( -0.17) Other @ 0.27% Total : 18.29% | 1-2 @ 9.62% ( 0.2) 0-2 @ 8.79% ( 0.55) 1-3 @ 7.6% ( -0.13) 0-1 @ 7.42% ( 0.72) 0-3 @ 6.95% ( 0.18) 1-4 @ 4.5% ( -0.25) 2-3 @ 4.16% ( -0.26) 0-4 @ 4.12% ( -0.05) 2-4 @ 2.46% ( -0.26) 1-5 @ 2.14% ( -0.21) 0-5 @ 1.95% ( -0.1) 2-5 @ 1.17% ( -0.17) Other @ 4.83% Total : 65.69% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | York City | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 47 | 20 | 27 | 48 |
2 | Barnet | 23 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 47 | 26 | 21 | 48 |
3 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 22 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 40 | 18 | 22 | 46 |
4 | Gateshead | 23 | 13 | 5 | 5 | 45 | 28 | 17 | 44 |
5 | Oldham AthleticOldham | 21 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 38 | 19 | 19 | 43 |
6 | Rochdale | 21 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 31 | 19 | 12 | 36 |
7 | Solihull MoorsSolihull | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 42 | 36 | 6 | 35 |
8 | Halifax TownHalifax | 23 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 26 | 23 | 3 | 35 |
9 | AltrinchamAltrincham | 23 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 37 | 30 | 7 | 34 |
10 | Yeovil TownYeovil | 23 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 28 | 25 | 3 | 34 |
11 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 23 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 26 | 25 | 1 | 33 |
12 | Eastleigh | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 30 | 28 | 2 | 32 |
13 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 30 | 29 | 1 | 32 |
14 | Tamworth | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 25 | 38 | -13 | 29 |
15 | Dagenham & RedbridgeDag & Red | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 35 | 29 | 6 | 28 |
16 | Southend UnitedSouthend | 23 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 27 |
17 | Woking | 23 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 24 |
18 | WealdstoneWealdstone | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 27 | 32 | -5 | 23 |
19 | Aldershot TownAldershot | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 32 | 40 | -8 | 23 |
20 | Fylde | 23 | 6 | 4 | 13 | 28 | 47 | -19 | 22 |
21 | Braintree TownBraintree | 23 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 19 | 33 | -14 | 20 |
22 | Maidenhead UnitedMaidenhead | 23 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 27 | 45 | -18 | 20 |
23 | Boston UnitedBoston | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 19 | 37 | -18 | 15 |
24 | Ebbsfleet | 23 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 17 | 54 | -37 | 9 |
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