Nacional welcome SC Farense to the Estadio da Madeira on Saturday, with the visitors looking to lift themselves off the foot of the Primeira Liga table.
The home side come into this game in some strong form, hoping to extend their unbeaten run to five matches, while Farense will be on the hunt for a first league win in five games.
Match preview
Last time out, Nacional secured a narrow 1-0 win away at strugglers Boavista, thanks to an own goal from Nuno Santos late in the first half.
That result extended their unbeaten run in the league to four matches, having picked up eight points from that period, seeing them move up to ninth in the table.
Their other victory came when Luis Freire's side came from behind to beat Famalicao 2-1, with Bryan Rochez and Chico Ramos netting goals in the second half to secure a win for Os Alvinegros.
Their run has also seen Nacional record a commendable 1-1 draw away at Benfica, when Rochez got on the scoresheet again, equalising in the second half after an early Chiquinho goal for their hosts.
As a result of their good form, Freire's side now sit in the top half of the division in their first season back in the top flight, having sat at the summit of the Segunda Liga when the league was cut short due to COVID-19.
On Saturday, they host the other team who were promoted from the second tier last season, with two points separating the two clubs last year when the league was stopped.
However, Farense have not fared as well as Nacional since their promotion, currently sitting at the bottom of the Primeira Liga table.
As a result of their league position, manager Sergio Vieira, who guided the club to promotion in his first season, was dismissed at the end of January, following a 2-0 loss to Tondela.
He was replaced by Jorge Costa, who secured a respectable 1-1 draw against seventh-placed Santa Clara in his first game at the helm, when Ryan Gauld gave Os Leoes de Faro the lead in the first half, before Carlos equalised with a penalty to split the points.
However, Farense took another backward step last time out, when they fell to a 2-1 defeat at home to Moreirense, with Yan and Rafael Martins putting the visitors two goals ahead, before Pedro Henrique added a goal for Costa's side deep into added time.
Worryingly for the new manager, his side currently have one of the worst away records in the league, with Os Leoes de Faro picking up just one point from seven games on the road this campaign, which does not look promising as they travel to a side eight points above them in the division.
However, they will be encouraged by the fact that they only sit three points adrift of safety, and only one point behind Boavista in the relegation playoff place.
That means one win could hugely change Farense's situation, and give them much more hope of avoiding relegation back to the second tier.
Nacional Primeira Liga form: LLDWDW
SC Farense Primeira Liga form: LWLLDL
Team News
Nacional will be without winger Kenji Gorre, who serves a suspension in this game after picking up his fifth yellow card of the season last time out, with Marco Matias expected to come into the side for his first start in this game after his arrival in January.
They will also remain without forward Brayan Riascos, who continues his spell on the sidelines with a muscle injury, after he registered four goals and an assist in the first 14 games of the season before his injury.
In his absence, Bryan Rochez has taken up the role of lone striker, scoring two goals in the four games without Riascos so far, and he is expected to lead the line again in this match.
He could be supported by Pedro Mendes, who has featured off the bench in the two games since his loan move from Sporting Lisbon.
Meanwhile, the away side will be without attacker Brian Mansilla, who will miss this game through suspension after he was shown his fifth yellow card of the season in the loss to Moreirense, with Hugo Seco expected to start in his place.
Farense's key man this season has been Ryan Gauld, with the Scotsman having five goals and four assists in the Primeira Liga this campaign, and the former Sporting Lisbon man will be crucial if they are to avoid relegation back down to the second tier.
Before his dismissal, Vieira took action to improve the Farense squad in the January transfer window, bringing in experienced defender Andre Pinto, who has started all three matches since his arrival.
They also picked up young full-back Tomas Tavares in January, who joined on loan from Benfica for the remainder of the season, with both new defenders expected to start in this match.
Nacional possible starting lineup:
Piscitelli; de Souza, Henrique, Correia, Vigario; Borges; Thill, Ramos, Azouni, Matias; Rochez
SC Farense possible starting lineup:
Defendi; Tavares, Pinto, Mancha, Nunes; Oudrhiri, Falcao; Lica, Gauld, Seca; Stojiljkovic
We say: Nacional 2-1 SC Farense
While Farense may be boosted by the positive effects brought about by a new manager, we can see them falling to a confident Nacional side who will be looking to make it five matches without a loss here, and expect the home side to record a narrow win at the Estadio da Madeira.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 40.73%. A win for SC Farense had a probability of 31.47% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.32%) and 2-0 (7.68%). The likeliest SC Farense win was 0-1 (10.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.06%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood.
