Maritimo and Estoril Praia get the ball rolling in round 21 of the Portuguese Primeira Liga when they go head to head at the Estadio dos Barreiros on Saturday.
Both sides head into the game separated by just two points and two places in the league standings and this makes for a thrilling and exciting watch.
Match preview
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After a slow start to the season, where they picked up just one win from their opening 11 games, Maritimo will be delighted with their performance so far as they have now surged into the top half of the Primeira Liga table.
Vasco Seabra's men have won six, drawn six and lost eight of their 20 games so far to collect 24 points and sit in ninth place, two points below Saturday's visitors.
However, Maritomo's blistering run of results took a slight halt last time out when they fell to a 2-1 defeat at the hands of title-chasing Porto.
In a one-sided affair at the Estadio do Dragao, Evanilson and Pepe scored to put the hosts in a comfortable two-goal lead before Edgar Costa pulled one back for the visitors in the 53rd minute.
Prior to that, O Maior das Ilha were on a four-game unbeaten run, claiming three wins and one draw, while scoring six goals and conceding two in that time.
Maritimo's turnaround has been owing to their fine display on home turf, where they are unbeaten in all but one of their last eight games — picking up four draws and winning three — with October's 2-1 defeat to Gil Vicente being the only exception.
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Meanwhile, Estoril Praia put an end to their losing streak last time out when they held on for a goalless draw with Pacos de Ferreira at the Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota.
In a game where Arthur Gomes received his marching orders, both sides were guilty of lethargic displays at the attacking end of the pitch, where they failed to create any clear-cut chances.
Prior to that, the Canarinhos were on a five-game losing streak across all competitions, including a 3-1 defeat at the hands of Tondela on December 21 which saw their Taca da Liga campaign come to an end.
After a fine start to life in the top flight, Estoril Praia have run out of steam, managing just one win from their most recent 10 games in all competitions, losing six and claiming three draws in that time.
This poor form has been in no small part owing to their recent defensive frailties as they have shipped 18 goals in that time, while keeping just two clean sheets.
Their struggles on home turf has also been another factor as they boast the division's fourth-worst home record after picking up nine points from 10 games so far.
However, Bruno Pinheiro's men will feel confident in their chances of ending this poor run this weekend as they face an opposing side who they are unbeaten against in each of the last five meetings between the sides since 2017, claiming three wins from their last three encounters.
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Team News
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Maritimo will take to the pitch without the services of Swedish forward Tim Soderstrom, who has been out of action since November through injury.
He is joined on the club's injury table by fellow forward Ricardinho, who is set to sit out his seventh consecutive game after picking up an injury against Boavista back in December.
Xadas, who sustained a knee problem against Tondela on November 7, returned to the fold last time out when he was handed a 24-minute cameo and the Portuguese midfielder could push for a starting role on Saturday.
Meanwhile, Estoril Praia will once again have to make do with the absence of 25-year-old defender Lucas Africo, who sustained a severe knee injury against Vizela back in November.
Fellow countryman Gomes will also play no part in the game as he serves his suspension for receiving his marching orders in the game against Pacos de Ferreira last time out.
On the back of his side's impressive defensive display in the aforementioned game, we could see a defensive unit of Joaozinho, Bernardo Vital, Patrick and Carles Soria for the third game running.
Maritimo possible starting lineup:
Victor; China, Leo, Junior, Costa; Henrique, Vidigal, Pelagio; Beltrame, Alipour, Costa
Estoril Praia possible starting lineup:
Figueira; Soria, Patrick, Vital, Joaozinho; Loreintz, Gamboa, Franco; Baro, Fonte, Laurenco
We say: Maritimo 2-1 Estoril Praia
Estoril Praia are yet to pick up their first win this year, losing three and claiming one draw in four outings. Despite Maritimo's defeat last time out, they head into the game in fine form, claiming 10 points the last 15 available. We are tipping Maritimo to end their poor run in this fixture and come away with all three points.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estoril Praia win with a probability of 36.55%. A win for Maritimo had a probability of 35.63% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estoril Praia win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.85%) and 0-2 (6.66%). The likeliest Maritimo win was 1-0 (10.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.11%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood.
