SC Farense make the trip to Maritimo on Monday evening knowing that victory will be enough to move ahead of their opponents in the Primeira Liga standings.
While the visitors sit in bottom place, Maritimo head into this encounter on the back of five games without success, four of which have ended in defeat.
Match preview
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After earning promotion from the second tier, few people will be too surprised to see Farense occupy the last spot in the table at this stage of the campaign.
Nevertheless, Leoes de Faro have been much improved in recent matches with five points coming from as many matches, their two defeats coming by narrow scorelines to Rio Ave and Braga.
Sergio Vieira will want to turn performances into results as soon as possible, but he will be satisfied that his team only sit four points adrift of 10th spot.
Victory on Monday would represent a second win in three games, and Scottish playmaker Ryan Gauld will be key to any success after already contributing two goals and three assists this season.
From Maritimo's perspective, they head into their next fixture as the worst-performing side over the last five contests, their only point coming against Nacional.
That has led to Lito Vidigal being removed from his position in the dugout, and a caretaker boss will be named ahead of Monday's game.
Vidigal had witnessed his team take an early lead against Benfica in their last match, only for the Portuguese giants to net either side of half time to secure the three points.
While the positives would have taken the positives from that encounter, another setback at Estadio de Sao Luís could leave Maritimo in the relegation zone.
SC Farense Primeira Liga form: LDLDWL
SC Farense form (all competitions): DLDWLL
Maritimo Primeira Liga form: WLLDLL
Maritimo form (all competitions): LLDLWL
Team News
Pedro Henrique is back in contention for Farense after serving a three-match ban.
However, the forward is yet to start a game this season, likely leaving Nikola Stojiljkovic to lead the line.
Fabricio Isidoro could replace Filipe Melo in the centre of midfield, but Fabio Nunes, Djalma and Eduardo Mancha all miss out through injury.
Zainadine Junior and Dejan Kerkez are both pushing for a return to the Maritimo squad after a spell on the sidelines.
Nevertheless, whoever is in charge for this game is unlikely to make too many alterations to the starting XI.
SC Farense possible starting lineup:
Defendi; Pinto, Martins, Falcao, Felipe; Isidoro, Oudrhiri; Gauld, Aouacheria, Mansilla; Stojiljkovic
Maritimo possible starting lineup:
Abedzadeh; Winck, Andrade, Junior, Rene, China; Macedo, Bambock, Pelagio, Costa; Pinho
We say: SC Farense 1-1 Maritimo
Having recently pushed Benfica and Braga, Farense will be confident that results will eventually go their way on a regular basis. However, we feel that Maritimo will do enough to claim a share of the spoils on Monday evening, building on their performance against Benfica last weekend.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SC Farense win with a probability of 44.06%. A win for Maritimo had a probability of 28.59% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a SC Farense win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.69%) and 2-0 (8.43%). The likeliest Maritimo win was 0-1 (9.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that SC Farense would win this match.
