Mali and Kenya meet on Thursday evening with the two nations sitting at the top of their African World Cup qualification group.
The home side hold a two-point advantage heading into the third game of Group E, putting the pressure on their opponents to avoid defeat in Agadir.
Match preview
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Given the players at their disposal, Mali should really be making light work of a group which also features Uganda and Rwanda.
However, Mohamed Magassouba's side were limited to just one goal during their opening double-header, Adama Traore's early strike proving to be the difference against the latter of those nations.
Holding a two-point lead after two games, Magassouba will only be thinking positively ahead of two fixtures against Kenya which may ultimately decide who progresses through to the final 10.
Nevertheless, a certain level of pressure remains on the shoulders of the Eagles, who have now scored just twice in their last five fixtures.
The flipside to that is just three strikes have been conceded in six outings, a statistic which highlights the size of the task facing Kenya.
The Harambee Stars have put together a six-match unbeaten streak in all competitions, an impressive feat when considering that run of games included a meeting with Egypt.
However, Kenya simply do not score enough goals, and you have to go all the way back to June 2019 for the last time that they netted more than twice in a game.
Engin Firat will insist that their performance in the final third will not necessarily dictate whether they finish ahead of Mali next month.
That said, this is a group of players who are heavily reliant on Hassan Abdallah and Michael Olunga, something which needs to change going forward.
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Team News
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Moussa Djenepo is in line for a recall to the Mali side, the Southampton winger potentially forming a flexible front three involving Traore and Moussa Doumbia.
Such a move would likely see Ibrahima Kone have to make do with a spot among the replacements.
As far as Kenya are concerned, Hassan could be recalled to the starting lineup, possibly on the right flank as a replacement for Masoud Juma.
Boniface Muchiri is an option on the opposite wing, while Bolton Omwenga could be handed a start at left-back.
Mali possible starting lineup:
Mounkoro; H. Traore, Sacko, Kouyate, C. Traore; Camara, Haidara, Samassekou; A. Traore, Doumbia, Djenepo
Kenya possible starting lineup:
Otieno; Sakari, Okumu, Asike, Omwenga; Juma, Odada; Hassan, Mugana, Muchiri; Olunga
We say: Mali 1-0 Kenya
If their recent form is anything to go by, there should not be many goals in this fixture. Nevertheless, we cannot see Kenya making much of a dent in their hosts, leading us to predict a narrow victory for Mali.
Top tip
Darren Plant
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 54.79%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Kenya had a probability of 21.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.79%) and 2-1 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.23%), while for a Kenya win it was 0-1 (6.45%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mali would win this match.
