Macarthur will look to record a fourth consecutive win on Friday to break into the top two of the Australian A-League table, as they welcome Brisbane Roar to the Campbelltown Sports Stadium.
A win over Perth Glory last Friday saw the hosts leapfrog Adelaide United and move up to third, while the visitors have now gone eight games without a win in the A-League, seeing them drop to eighth spot in the top flight.
Match preview
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Last time out, Macarthur recorded an important victory when they hosted Perth Glory.
A Matt Derbyshire brace in the first half led the Bulls to a solid 2-0 victory, taking their winning run to three games in the Australian top flight.
That followed a narrow 1-0 win away at Wellington Phoenix, as Denis Genreau netted the only goal of the game in the second half to seal all three points for Ante Milicic's side.
As a result of that run, the Bulls now sit in third spot in their debut A-League season, just three points behind league leaders Central Coast Mariners with a game in hand.
With the opportunity to take advantage of that game in hand on Friday, and temporarily go ahead of second-placed Melbourne City, Milicic's side will battle hard to record a fourth straight win when they welcome Brisbane Roar.
However, the visitors will be hopeful for a win of their own for the opposite reason, as they look to break a run of eight league games without a victory.
That run has seen them pick up a disappointing tally of five points, while only netting four goals.
As a result, Warren Moon's side have dropped to eighth place in the A-League, now sitting level on points with ninth-placed Perth Glory and only two points ahead of 10th-placed Wellington Phoenix.
The Brisbane outfit recorded a second consecutive draw last time out, as Riku Danzaki equalised after Kwame Yeboah had put sixth-placed Western Sydney Wanderers ahead.
Moon will be desperate to stop the rot with a much-needed win, but Friday does not present an easy chance to do that, as they take on one of the league's form sides away from home.
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Team News
Milicic could opt to stick with the same Macarthur lineup that has won the last three games, with Aleksandar Susnjar, Mark Milligan and Aleksandar Jovanovic forming the back three behind the midfield pairing of Denis Genreau and Benat.
Meanwhile, Matt Derbyshire will lead the line, having netted a brace last time out to take his tally to 10 goals from 15 A-League appearances this season.
He will be supported in attack by the wide threat of Markel Susaeta and Loic Puyo.
Brisbane Roar could come into this game without captain Tom Aldred, after the centre-back was absent from the squad for the draw with Western Sydney Wanderers.
However, they will be boosted by the return of defender Macaulay Gillesphey, who served a suspension last time out.
Despite leading their scoring charts with six goals this season, attacker Dylan Wenzel-Halls was dropped to the bench last time out, and he will be pushing for a return to the starting side on Friday.
Macarthur possible starting lineup:
Federici; Jovanovic, Milligan, Susnjar; Franjic, Genreau, Benat, Oar; Susaeta, Derbyshire, Puyo
Brisbane Roar possible starting lineup:
Young; Hingert, Trewin, Gillesphey; Brindell-South, Akbari, O'Shea, Brown; Danzaki, Wenzel-Halls, Champness
We say: Macarthur 1-0 Brisbane Roar
Given their impressive run of form, and the poor run of the visitors, we can only see Macarthur extending their winning run to four matches in this game.
While Brisbane Roar have shown themselves to be defensively solid, we would back a dominant Macarthur side to break them down over the course of 90 minutes, while the hosts' defence should not be too troubled by an attack which has struggled for goals all season.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Macarthur win with a probability of 40.25%. A win for Brisbane Roar had a probability of 34.8% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Macarthur win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.56%) and 2-0 (6.37%). The likeliest Brisbane Roar win was 1-2 (8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.7%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8% likelihood.
