Two teams in contrasting form come head-to-head on Friday morning as Macarthur entertain Adelaide United in the Australian A-League.
The hosts have lost just one of their last five outings, while Carl Veart's men have picked up just three points from a possible 12 in recent weeks.
Match preview
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Macarthur are the division's new boys and have made a decent start to life in the Australian top flight.
Head coach Ante Milicic recruited well over the summer, bringing several big names to the Campbelltown Stadium, including ex-Athletic Bilbao midfielders Markel Susaeta and Benat Etxebarria.
The Bulls are currently sitting in fourth place in the A-League standings after picking up 11 points from their opening seven outings and will be looking to consolidate their spot inside the playoff places on Friday.
A 2-0 win over Brisbane Roar last time out, courtesy of strikes from Denis Genreau and former Blackburn Rovers and Nottingham Forest striker Matt Derbyshire, maintained Milicic's men's good form.
Another three points against Adelaide would be a serious signal of Macarthur's intent this season and solidify their top-six aspirations.
The Reds suffered a 2-1 defeat at the hands of Perth Glory on Friday meaning that they have succumbed to back-to-back losses.
Veart oversaw a large overhaul of the first-team squad in the off-season. Seven new arrivals offset 11 departures as the former caretaker manager made his mark at the Coopers Stadium.
It was always likely that the summer signings would need time to find their feet, and it appears that this is the case.
Adelaide have struggled at the back this season, having conceded 10 goals in their six league encounters, meaning they have one of the worst defensive records in the division.
If Veart is going to improve his side's fortunes, then he will have to solve their issues at the back sooner rather than later.
Macarthur Australian A-League form: LDWLDW
Adelaide United Australian A-League form: DWLWLL
Team News
Centre-forward Milislav Popovic is the only injury concern for Milicic, who is unlikely to make many changes from the side that saw off Brisbane Roar last time out.
However, several star players started on the bench against the Roar, but the impact that the likes of Derbyshire, Susaeta and Etxebarria made as substitutes should earn them a recall to the starting XI.
Adelaide United's right-winger Ryan Strain has suffered a groin injury and is unavailable for the trip to the Campbelltown Stadium.
He is joined on the treatment table by Ryan Kitto after the central midfielder sustained a knee injury.
Macarthur possible starting lineup:
Federici; Meredith, Milligan, Jovanovic, Franjic; Etxebarria, Genreau; Najjar, Puyo, Susaeta; Derbyshire
Adelaide United possible starting lineup:
Delianov; Abetew, Elsey, Jakobsen, Smith; Mauk, Caletti, A'Arrigo; Halloran, Juric, Dukuly
We say: Macarthur 2-1 Adelaide United
Macarthur carry the momentum into this clash, and as a result, we fancy them to come away with all three points. The hosts should have too much attacking quality for their opponents, who have struggled to keep clean sheets this season, and continue their rise up the table.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 50.89%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 27.21% and a draw had a probability of 21.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.86%) and 0-2 (6.73%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 2-1 (6.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.54%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood.
