Sports Mole previews Sunday's Women's Champions League clash between Lyon Women and Paris Saint-Germain Women, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

On Sunday, Lyon Women and Paris Saint-Germain Women will battle it out in the first leg of their Women's Champions League semi-final.

Lyon will have home advantage for their first leg, and they enter the contest off the back of three consecutive victories in all competitions, while the visitors are unbeaten in their last 20 matches.

Match preview

Lyon Women's Catarina Macario celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on March 22, 2022 © Reuters

Lyon have won more Champions League trophies than any other side, and this season they are hoping to become European Champions for the eighth time in their history.

Sonia Bompastor's side secured their progression into the quarter-final by topping a group that featured Bayern Munich, with Juventus the team awaiting them in the last eight.

Despite taking the lead in the first leg, Lyon suffered a 2-1 defeat after Juventus turned the game on its head following Ellie Carpenter's red card.

Lyon showed their quality in the return leg in France, with goals from Ada Hegerberg, Melvine Malard and Catarina Macario guiding the French side to a 3-1 victory over Juventus.

Since that victory, they have beaten Guingamp and Fleury 91 in the league, giving them a five-point lead over PSG, and they will be confident that they can beat their rivals on Sunday, especially as Bompastor's charges have won every home game this season.

PSG Women celebrate scoring on March 9, 2021 © Reuters

PSG are now used to facing their French counterparts in European competition, with the semi-final tie representing the sixth time that the two sides have faced each other in the Champions League across the last eight seasons.

Like their hosts, PSG also topped their Champions League group before they faced Bayern Munich in the last eight.

The reigning French champions gained the upper hand over Bayern with a 2-1 victory at the Allianz Arena, but the German side matched that scoreline in the second leg to take the tie into extra time.

Ramona Bachmann proved to be the hero for Sunday's visitors when she found the winner in the 112th minute to keep her team's hopes of winning their first Champions League title alive.

Although PSG have lost 6-1 away to Lyon in the league this season, they will be looking to take inspiration from the 3-0 home win that they picked up over their rivals in the last 16 of the Coupe de France.

Lyon Women Women's Champions League form:

Lyon Women form (all competitions):

Paris Saint-Germain Women Women's Champions League form:

Paris Saint-Germain Women form (all competitions):

Team News

Lyon Women's coach Sonia Bompastor on March 23, 2022 © Reuters

Carpenter missed the second leg for Lyon through suspension, but the Australia international will be available for Sunday's contest.

Lyon will, however, be without Damaris Egurrola who is suspended due to an accumulation of yellow cards, which could result in Griedge Mbock moving into midfield.

With Mbock set to vacate her defensive position, Kadeisha Buchanan is expected to partner Wendie Renard in the centre of defence.

As for the visitors, Paulina Dudek has started the last three games after returning from injury, and she will feature in the backline on Sunday.

Sara Dabritz recovered from her injury issue to feature in PSG's league win over Issy last weekend, and the Germany international is set to appear in midfield alongside Grace Geyoro and Kheira Hamraoui.

Marie-Antoinette Katoto will be one of PSG's main goal threats as she looks to add to the five goals that she has scored in the Champions League this season.

Lyon Women possible starting lineup:
Endler; Carpenter, Buchanan, Renard, Bacha; Henry, Mbock; Cascarino, Macario, Malard; Hegerberg

Paris Saint-Germain Women possible starting lineup:
Votikova; Lawrence, Dudek, Ilestedt, Karachaoui; Geyoro, Hamraoui, Dabritz; Diani, Baltimore, Katoto

SM words green background

We say: Lyon Women 2-1 Paris Saint-Germain Women

The two competitive meetings between the sides this season have resulted in a victory apiece, but we think that the hosts, who have won every home game this season, will emerge from the first leg with a narrow advantage.

Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon Women win with a probability of 41.79%. A win for Paris Saint-Germain Women had a probability of 36.85% and a draw had a probability of 21.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lyon Women win was 2-1 with a probability of 7.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.17%) and 3-2 (4.71%). The likeliest Paris Saint-Germain Women win was 1-2 (7.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.19%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lyon Women would win this match.