First place in Major League Soccer will be up for grabs on Wednesday as Los Angeles FC host Austin FC at Banc of California Stadium.
The Black and Gold conceded a pair of first-half penalties this past weekend, dropping a 2-0 decision to the Colorado Rapids, while the Verde and Black are three points behind them in the Western Conference standings, despite losing consecutive domestic fixtures.
Match preview
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We have often seen this LA team at their best in 2022, though last Saturday, we learned that they are mere mortals who can be fallible once in a while.
Steve Cherundolo called their defeat against the Burgundy Boys a poor football match, criticizing his players afterwards for being asleep in the opening 20 minutes.
When they are at their best, this possession-based squad can move the ball up the field as good as anyone, creating natural triangles that have provided their players on the ball with several passing options.
According to their coach, few individuals were in good form in the altitude of Colorado, although he reiterated that he has a lot of faith in his team going forward.
The mental lapses which we have seen from them on the road this season have rarely transpired at home, where they are unbeaten in six encounters this year, without a defeat in their previous nine fixtures dating back to 2021.
LAFC have a ton of pace all over the field, and they like to play an up-tempo brand of football, but the Black and Gold have struggled at times to adjust to teams who like to take their time in the build-up and play at a slower pace.
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Austin came into the month of May on the back of a six-game unbeaten run, though their current form should serve as a humbling reminder of how quickly momentum can shift.
Josh Wolff and his team began this road trip with the goal of proving to their critics that they are as good as their record would indicate.
However, they have not been able to prove that away from home, losing 1-0 to the Los Angeles Galaxy before falling 2-1 at Real Salt Lake on Saturday.
Last Friday, Wolff got a vote of confidence from the management team, who signed him to a three-year contract extension, allowing the former MLS striker to continue building this team, who have grown tremendously in year two.
Their off-season moves at the end of 2021 have made a massive impact for them in the final third, as they are tied with LAFC for the most goals scored in 2022 (23), a season after finishing with the lowest tally in MLS (35).
Not only do they possess a ton of attacking depth, but their current roster is littered with players who are versatile and capable of playing sharp defensively while also looking dangerous in attack.
The Verde and Black love to move the ball quickly up the field in transition, scoring 15 goals from open play so far this season.
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Team News
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John McCarthy was one of the few players that Cherundolo was optimistic about following the defeat at Colorado, as the reserve goalkeeper kept his team in that game, stopping four of the six shots that he faced.
Maxime Crepeau was not injured, as he simply got to rest after playing in their 2-0 win at the U.S. Open Cup against the Portland Timbers in midweek.
The status of defender Ryan Hollingshead remains up in the air after he limped off just before the end of the first half last weekend.
There are still several players unavailable for LA, including Eddie Segura (right knee), Erik Duenas (left knee), Julian Gaines (pelvis), Brian Rodriguez (right hamstring), Ismael Tajouri-Shradi (left quad), Doneil Henry and Jesus Murillo (left hamstring).
Jose Cifuentes has a pair of goals for LA in previous games against Austin last season, while Cristian Arango and Danny Musovski both scored the last time these two teams met, which wound up as a 2-1 win for the Black and Gold.
Diego Fagundez is the only player to score a goal for Austin versus LAFC, as his side lost all three of their fixtures against them in their inaugural campaign.
Fagundez also indirectly assisted on one of the goals against his team last year, as his handball in September gave Los Angeles a penalty kick which they converted.
Andrew Tarbell has started in goal for the Verde and Black in back-to-back contests following the injury to first-choice keeper Brad Stuver, who suffered a right knee laceration in a 2-1 win against the Houston Dynamo.
At the same time, Daniel Pereira will be suspended for this encounter after being sent off in the 47th minute versus RSL.
Sebastian Driussi is without a goal in consecutive matches, as he is two tallies behind Jesus Ferreira of Dallas for the Golden Boot, while Alexander Ring notched his second of the campaign in their defeat to Claret and Cobalt.
Los Angeles FC possible starting lineup:
Crepeau; Palacios, Fall, Leone, Escobar; Sanchez; Acosta, Blessing, Cifuentes; Arango, Vela
Austin FC possible starting lineup:
Tarbell; Kolmanic, Gabrielsen, Lima, Romana; Valencia, Ring; Fagundez, Driussi, Finlay; Urruti
We say: Los Angeles FC 2-0 Austin FC
The Austin style is well-suited to the way Cherundolo and his team like to play, so we expect an excellent bounce-back performance from LA, who have been lethal on the counter at Banc of California Stadium, scoring 21 times at home this year in all competitions.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Los Angeles FC win with a probability of 63.14%. A draw had a probability of 20.1% and a win for Austin FC had a probability of 16.77%.
The most likely scoreline for a Los Angeles FC win was 2-0 with a probability of 10%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.93%) and 1-0 (9.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.38%), while for an Austin FC win it was 1-2 (4.66%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.
