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Atalanta logo
Champions League | Group Stage
Nov 3, 2020 at 8pm UK
KKWing Stadium
Liverpool logo

Atalanta
0 - 5
Liverpool

FT(HT: 0-2)
Jota (16', 33', 54'), Salah (47'), Mane (49')
Wijnaldum (21'), Jones (21'), Klopp (74')

Preview: Atalanta BC vs. Liverpool - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Tuesday night's Champions League Group D clash between Atalanta BC and Liverpool, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Two of European football's most entertaining teams go head to head on Tuesday when Atalanta BC welcome Liverpool to the Gewiss Stadium in Bergamo.

The two sides, who are meeting for the first time ever, currently occupy the top two spots in Champions League Group D and could take a giant stride towards the knockout rounds with victory here.


Match preview

Diogo Jota celebrates scoring for Liverpool against West Ham United with teammates on October 31, 2020© Reuters

As far as European pedigree goes, there could hardly be a bigger gulf between these two sides as Atalanta, in only their second Champions League season, host six-time winners Liverpool.

Right now, though, it promises to be a difficult test for a patched-up Liverpool defence especially, with Atalanta having carved out a reputation as one of Europe's most prolific goalscorers under Gian Piero Gasperini.

Only one team has scored more in Serie A so far this season, with Atalanta plundering 17 in their opening six games, while only two clubs have scored more in any of the Champions League groups heading into matchday three.

Those stats will be particularly worrying for a Liverpool side that has seen their defensive options decimated by injury and a backline that has shipped 15 goals already in the Premier League this season - a tally it took them 24 games to reach en route to the title last term.

Atalanta are not exactly defensive masters themselves having conceded 13 times in six Serie A outings, and one thing this fixture does seem to guarantee is goals - in their combined 13 league games alone this season these two teams have seen 62 goals fly in at either end.

Atalanta BC players celebrate scoring against FC Midtjylland on October 21, 2020© Reuters

It has been a different story for Liverpool in the Champions League so far this season, though, with Jurgen Klopp's side keeping clean sheets in wins over Ajax and FC Midtjylland to take control of Group D.

The Reds are one of only three teams yet to concede a goal in the group stages and they arrive in Bergamo having won their last four games in all competitions - most recently a come-from-behind 2-1 triumph over West Ham United on Saturday.

Liverpool have also won each of their last three away Champions League group games - having lost four on the bounce before that - including the 1-0 win at Ajax on matchday one.

Klopp's record in Italy is poor, though; he has lost all five of his previous Champions League visits as a manager, including three previous trips with Liverpool.

Atalanta, meanwhile, have lost just one of their last 17 European home games and go into Tuesday's contest knowing that victory would lift them above their visitors at the top of Group D.

Atalanta BC head coach Gian Piero Gasperini pictured in October 2020© Reuters

Serie A's entertainers hammered Midtjylland 4-0 away from home on matchday one before coming from two goals down to rescue a draw at home to Ajax last week, leaving them with four points from their opening two group games.

Gasperini's side are far better off than they were at the same stage of last season, when they lost their opening three group games but somehow recovered to make it through to the knockout rounds, eventually being eliminated by a late show from Paris Saint-Germain.

Indeed, since losing their first three Champions League group games, Atalanta are now unbeaten in their last five - a run which began with a 1-1 draw at home to Manchester City almost exactly one year ago.

La Dea produced a timely return to winning ways against Crotone at the weekend, with Luis Muriel's double ending back-to-back domestic defeats by an aggregate scoreline of 7-2.

Prior to that, though, Atalanta had scored 13 goals in their opening three league games and that attacking prowess will not only make Liverpool wary, it also makes them dark horses to go far in this season's competition.

Atalanta BC Champions League form: WD
Atalanta BC form (all competitions): WLWLDW

Liverpool Champions League form: WW
Liverpool form (all competitions): LDWWWW


Team News

Liverpool midfielder Thiago Alcantara after the full-time whistle against Everton on October 17.© Reuters

Liverpool's four-match winning run is made all the more impressive by the fact that they have done it without the likes of Virgil van Dijk, Thiago Alcantara and Joel Matip, none of whom have featured since picking up injuries in the Merseyside derby last month.

Van Dijk is sidelined for the long term with an ACL problem, but Thiago and Matip are not far away from recovering and could even be in contention for this contest.

Klopp is unlikely to take any risks with Matip having seen emergency centre-back Fabinho join Van Dijk in the treatment room during the match against Midtjylland, so Rhys Williams could start alongside Joe Gomez at the heart of the defence.

Nat Phillips carried out that role with aplomb at the weekend, putting in a man-of-the-match display against West Ham, but he is not registered in the Champions League squad and so is ineligible for this match.

In addition to Thiago and Matip, Naby Keita and Kostas Tsimikas will also be assessed in the buildup to kickoff, but Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain remains sidelined. Matip and Keita returned to full training on Sunday and so appear more likely to be involved than Thiago or Tsimikas, but Klopp refused to rule any of them out.

Diogo Jota will hope to have earned a start following his match-winning cameo off the bench against West Ham, not to mention his goal last time out in the Champions League too. The summer signing could become only the second player, after Robbie Keane in 2008, to score on both of his first two Champions League starts for Liverpool.

Roberto Firmino is the most likely member of the front three to make way, although Mohamed Salah has played more minutes against Atalanta in all competitions without scoring than any other club since leaving Basel in 2014.

Duvan Zapata is expected to lead the Atalanta line having only been used as a half-time sub at the weekend, with the Colombian having a hand in six goals in five Champions League starts for the Italian outfit - including scoring twice against Ajax last week.

However, Muriel has every right to expect to start as well following his brace at the weekend, leaving Gasperini with the type of selection headache every manager wants.

The Atalanta boss also has a decision to make in goal, with Pierluigi Gollini now back fit after a knee injury but having spent the last two games on the bench with Marco Sportiello preferred between the sticks.

Mattia Caldara, Marco Carnesecchi, Cristiano Piccini and Marten de Roon are all still sidelined for the hosts.

Atalanta BC possible starting lineup:
Sportiello; Toloi, Romero, Djimsiti; Hateboer, Freuler, Pasalic, Gosens; Ilicic, Gomez; Zapata

Liverpool possible starting lineup:
Alisson; Alexander-Arnold, R Williams, Gomez, Robertson; Shaqiri, Henderson, Milner; Salah, Mane, Jota


SM words green background

We say: Atalanta BC 2-2 Liverpool

This is a game which pretty much guarantees goals. Both teams have been scoring plenty and conceding at an alarming rate so far this season, and with two managers who refuse to waver away from their attack-minded style it promises to be an entertaining affair.

There are not many clubs at the moment more capable than Atalanta of capitalising on Liverpool's defensive shortages, but the same is also true at the other end and there is sure to be space for Liverpool's attackers to operate in. We are predicting a free-flowing and thoroughly enjoyable score draw.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Away:data


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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Liverpool win with a probability of 60.57%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for Atalanta BC had a probability of 15.65%.

The most likely scoreline for a Liverpool win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.82%) and 1-2 (9.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.94%), while for an Atalanta BC win it was 1-0 (6.5%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Liverpool would win this match.


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Game History

Who will win Tuesday's Champions League clash between Atalanta and Liverpool?

Atalanta
22.6%
Draw
18.3%
Liverpool
59.0%
349
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Liverpool's Fabinho trudges off after suffering an injury against FC Midtjylland in the Champions League on October 27, 2020
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League Phase

TeamPWDLPTS
1Liverpool440012
2Sporting Lisbon431010
3Brest431010
4Inter Milan431010
5Monaco431010
6Barcelona43019
7Dortmund43019
8Aston Villa43019
9Atalanta42208
10Juventus42117
11Lille42117
12Man City42117
13Arsenal42117
14B. Leverkusen42117
15Celtic42117
16Dinamo Zagreb42117
17AC Milan42026
18Bayern42026
19Benfica42026
20Feyenoord42026
21Real Madrid42026
22Brugge42026
23Atletico42026
24PSV41215
25Sparta Prague41124
26Stuttgart41124
27PSG41124
28Shakhtar41124
29Girona41033
30Salzburg41033
31Bologna40131
32RB Leipzig40040
33Sturm Graz40040
34Young Boys40040
35Red Star40040
36Slovan Bratislava40040


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