Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 45.48%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 28.07% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9%) and 2-0 (8.43%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 0-1 (8.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.54%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood.
