EFL Cup

EFL Cup | First Round

Sep 5, 2020 at 3pm UK

Boundary Park

Oldham
3 - 0
Carlisle

Garrity (29'), Grant (37'), McAleny (90')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Anderton (53'), McDonald (67'), Hayden (90+1')

Coverage of the EFL Cup First Round clash between Oldham Athletic and Carlisle United.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Oldham Athletic win with a probability of 40.15%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 36.1% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Oldham Athletic win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.11%) and 2-0 (5.71%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 1-2 (8.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.74%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Oldham Athletic would win this match.

Result
Oldham Athletic	Draw	Carlisle United
40.15%	23.75%	36.1%

Both teams to score 62.3%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

60.26%

39.74%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

37.91%

62.09%

Oldham Athletic Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.92%

20.08%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.69%

52.31%

Carlisle United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.95%

22.05%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.62%

55.38%

Score Analysis

Oldham Athletic 40.15%

Carlisle United 36.1%

Draw 23.74%

Oldham Athletic	Draw	Carlisle United
2-1 @ 8.63% 1-0 @ 7.11% 2-0 @ 5.71% 3-1 @ 4.62% 3-2 @ 3.49% 3-0 @ 3.05% 4-1 @ 1.85% 4-2 @ 1.4% 4-0 @ 1.23% Other @ 3.07% Total : 40.15%	1-1 @ 10.74% 2-2 @ 6.52% 0-0 @ 4.43% 3-3 @ 1.76% Other @ 0.3% Total : 23.74%	1-2 @ 8.12% 0-1 @ 6.69% 0-2 @ 5.06% 1-3 @ 4.09% 2-3 @ 3.29% 0-3 @ 2.55% 1-4 @ 1.55% 2-4 @ 1.24% 0-4 @ 0.96% Other @ 2.54% Total : 36.1%