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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Doncaster Rovers win with a probability of 38.49%. A win for Colchester United had a probability of 36.25% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Doncaster Rovers win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.49%) and 0-2 (6.17%). The likeliest Colchester United win was 1-0 (8.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Doncaster Rovers would win this match.
Result | ||
Colchester United | Draw | Doncaster Rovers |
36.25% ( 0.03) | 25.27% ( -0) | 38.49% ( -0.03) |
Both teams to score 56.77% ( 0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
53.08% ( 0.02) | 46.92% ( -0.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
30.83% ( 0.02) | 69.17% ( -0.02) |
Colchester United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.74% ( 0.02) | 25.26% ( -0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
39.98% ( 0.03) | 60.02% ( -0.03) |
Doncaster Rovers Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.96% ( -0.01) | 24.04% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
41.69% ( -0.01) | 58.31% ( 0.01) |
Score Analysis |
Colchester United | Draw | Doncaster Rovers |
1-0 @ 8.36% 2-1 @ 8.19% ( 0) 2-0 @ 5.75% ( 0) 3-1 @ 3.76% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.68% ( 0) 3-0 @ 2.64% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.29% ( 0) 4-2 @ 0.92% ( 0) 4-0 @ 0.91% ( 0) Other @ 1.75% Total : 36.25% | 1-1 @ 11.91% 0-0 @ 6.07% ( -0) 2-2 @ 5.84% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.27% ( 0) Other @ 0.17% Total : 25.27% | 0-1 @ 8.66% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 8.49% ( -0) 0-2 @ 6.17% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 4.03% ( -0) 0-3 @ 2.93% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.77% 1-4 @ 1.44% ( -0) 0-4 @ 1.04% ( -0) 2-4 @ 0.99% Other @ 1.96% Total : 38.49% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Port Vale | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 33 |
2 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 28 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 28 |
4 | Walsall | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 12 | 27 |
5 | MK Dons | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
6 | Notts County | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 27 |
7 | Grimsby Town | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 25 |
8 | AFC Wimbledon | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 13 | 10 | 23 |
9 | Bradford CityBradford | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 23 |
10 | Gillingham | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 23 |
11 | Chesterfield | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 29 | 20 | 9 | 22 |
12 | BarrowBarrow | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 22 |
13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 21 |
14 | Salford City | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 21 |
15 | Newport CountyNewport | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 20 |
16 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 18 |
17 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 18 |
18 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 18 |
19 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 17 |
20 | Bromley | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 |
21 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 14 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 13 |
23 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 12 |
24 | Morecambe | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 10 |
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