Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 49.74%. A win for Villarreal had a probability of 28.12% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.88%) and 0-2 (6.63%). The likeliest Villarreal win was 2-1 (6.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.67%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Barcelona would win this match.